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CPTCamden Property TrustSell4.7·$114.98+0.47%
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Camden Property Trust (CPT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Residential

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.98 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: multifamily communities.

Camden Property Trust owns, develops, and manages multifamily apartment communities across the U.S., with 175 properties totaling 59,921 apartment homes at December 31, 2025, three of which are under construction. Revenue derives entirely from apartment rents; the REIT carried... Read more

$114.98-0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#10 of 16 REIT - Residential
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield6.04%
IncomeYield3.69%(5y avg 3.35%)Payout117.60%
Stop $110.64Target $114.26(resistance)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst target$113.94-0.9%22 analysts
$114.26our TP
$114.98price
$113.94mean
$95
$134

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.98 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: multifamily communities. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.70, news boost analyst cluster(7), earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Camden Property Trust

About Camden Property Trust

Camden Property Trust's 175 multifamily communities—comprising 59,921 apartment homes across the United States at December 31, 2025—form the entirety of the company's income-producing real estate, with three additional communities totaling 1,162 apartment homes under construction. Camden employs about 1,640 people and qualifies as a REIT under IRS Code Sections 856-860. Outstanding debt totaled roughly $3.9 billion, supported by investment-grade credit ratings of A- from Fitch, A3 from Moody's, and A- from S&P as of December 31, 2025.

Camden earns rental income through lease agreements averaging approximately 14 months, with expirations staggered by apartment type to match each property's seasonal rental patterns and minimize vacancy concentration at any single point. All 175 communities are directly owned and operated, with no franchised or third-party managed properties in the portfolio. The REIT covenant requires distributing at least 90% of adjusted taxable income annually as dividends, constraining retained cash available for debt repayment. Development activity planned for 2026 includes approximately $135 million to $155 million in construction costs for three projects underway, $50 million to $60 million for new development starts, and $77 million to $81 million for repositions, redevelopment, and repurposing.

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Camden's 14-month average lease terms expose rental income to downward market repricing faster than multi-year commercial leases would—the 10-K notes that leases permitting residents to leave at term end mean rental revenues respond to market rent declines more quickly than longer-term leases. Rent control adds a secondary layer of risk: multiple states and municipalities in Camden's markets have adopted, or are actively considering, stabilization laws that could limit the company's ability to raise rents, evict residents, or recover increases in operating costs depending on local regulatory scope.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Residential

From Camden Property Trust's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive momentum
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(7) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Property Type: multifamily communities
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.1
P/E (Fwd)72.0
Mkt Cap$11.4B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn24.5%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth-0.5%
Beta0.81
Dividend3.69%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV41%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHPropertymultifamily communities
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our income is derived from rental and other income from our multifamily communities'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Effective March 24, 2026: Richard J. Campo became Executive Chairman; Alexander J. Jessett became CEO and joined the Board; Laurie A. Baker became President and COO; Benjamin D. Fraker became EVP-CFO. Employment agreements entered with all incoming officers.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-27Item 1.01LOW
    Entry into employment agreements with incoming CEO Jessett, COO Baker, and CFO Fraker, and a letter agreement with Executive Chairman Campo, effective March 24, 2026, in connection with the leadership succession disclosed under Item 5.02.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -0.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.4
Earnings Growth
4.4
Declining revenue: -0%

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.4
Analyst Target
3.0
Ps
5.4
P Ocf
7.3
P/OCF: 13.8x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
4.0
Quality Rank
5.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 369.0%
GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(7)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $102.51Resistance $116.59

Price Targets

$111
$114
A.Upside-0.6%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $114.98 — A.R:R is negative (-1.0) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Property Type: multifamily communities. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $110.64. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.26 (-0.6% upside). Prior stop was $110.64. Stop-loss: $110.64.

What are the risks of investing in CPT?

Concentration risk — Property Type: multifamily communities; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Is CPT overvalued or undervalued?

Camden Property Trust trades at a P/E of 32.1 (forward 72.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CPT?

29 analysts cover CPT with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Camden Property Trust do?Camden Property Trust owns, develops, and manages multifamily apartment communities across the U.S., with 175...

Camden Property Trust owns, develops, and manages multifamily apartment communities across the U.S., with 175 properties totaling 59,921 apartment homes at December 31, 2025, three of which are under construction. Revenue derives entirely from apartment rents; the REIT carried roughly $3.9 billion in outstanding debt and holds investment-grade credit ratings from Fitch, Moody's, and S&P.

Related stocks: MRP (Millrose Properties, Inc.) · UMH (UMH Properties, Inc.) · UDR (UDR, Inc.) · SUI (Sun Communities, Inc.) · AMH (American Homes 4 Rent)
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