Skip to main content

Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $660.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China joint ventures; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Cummins is a global power leader offering diesel, natural gas, electric, and hybrid powertrains plus components and aftermarket services through Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera segments. It sells to OEMs, distributors, and dealers in approximately... Read more

$660.51+13.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#22 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
Entry $583.44(50-day MA)Stop $546.10Target $661.25(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$643.36-2.6%20 analysts
$661.25our TP
$660.51price
$643.36mean
$490
$784

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $660.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China joint ventures; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $660.92 has reached target $661.25. No upside to wait for. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val4.5Qual5.2Grw6.4Mom5.0Sent5.8Ins5.0Peer3.2Tech4.3Risk6.75.3OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China joint ventures
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.7
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$92.8B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn8.4%
ROE23.9%
Rev Growth1.1%
Beta1.14
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina joint ventures
    10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.5
Quality Rank
5.9
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $541.66Resistance $674.75

Price Targets

$546
$583
$661
A.Upside+0.1%
A.R:R-0.8:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-12.4% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMI stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $660.51, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: China joint ventures; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $660.92 has reached target $661.25. No upside to wait for. Target $661.25 (+0.1%), stop $546.10 (−21.0%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $661.25 (+13.3% upside). Target $661.25 (+0.1%), stop $546.10 (−21.0%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $546.10.

What are the risks of investing in CMI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China joint ventures; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.0% away).

Is CMI overvalued or undervalued?

Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.7 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CMI?

27 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $643.

What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins is a global power leader offering diesel, natural gas, electric, and hybrid powertrains plus components and...

Cummins is a global power leader offering diesel, natural gas, electric, and hybrid powertrains plus components and aftermarket services through Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera segments. It sells to OEMs, distributors, and dealers in approximately 190 countries via 640-plus distributor locations and 13,000-plus certified dealer locations.

Related stocks: NDSN (Nordson Corporation) · IEX (IDEX Corporation) · OTIS (Otis Worldwide Corporation) · WTS (Watts Water Technologies, Inc.) · PNR (Pentair plc.)