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CMICummins Inc.Sell4.5·$662.40+1.02%
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Cummins Inc. (CMI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery

Sell if holding. At $662.40, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials.

Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer... Read more

$662.40+0.6% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#44 of 48 Specialty Industrial Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield1.87%
IncomeYield1.22%(5y avg 2.31%)Payout40.62%sustainable
Stop $616.04Target $666.11(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$740.12+11.7%19 analysts
$666.11our TP
$662.40price
$740.12mean
$520
$850

Sell if holding. At $662.40, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)34.0
P/E (Fwd)19.3
Mkt Cap$90.5B
EV/EBITDA19.3
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE22.0%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta1.24
Dividend1.22%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina-based investees
    10-K Item 1A: 'more than 50 percent of these earnings from our China-based investees'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source parts and raw materials
    10-K Item 1A: 'We single source a number of parts and raw materials critical to our business operations'
  • MEDIUMCustomerfew large on-highway truck OEM customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We recognize significant sales of engines and components to a few large on-highway truck OEM customers'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
3.2

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
5.9
Superior ROE vs peers
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $628.09Resistance $701.84

Price Targets

$616
$666
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.6% upside)
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $662.40, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $616.04. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $666.11 (+0.6% upside). Prior stop was $616.04. Stop-loss: $616.04.

What are the risks of investing in CMI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China-based investees; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source parts and raw materials; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CMI overvalued or undervalued?

Cummins Inc. trades at a P/E of 34.0 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CMI?

28 analysts cover CMI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $740.

What does Cummins Inc. do?Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26%...

Cummins designs and manufactures diesel, natural gas, and electric power solutions through five segments — Engine (26% of 2025 sales), Components (25%), Distribution (30%), Power Systems (18%), and Accelera — served via 640 distributor locations and over 13,000 certified dealer outlets in approximately 190 countries. Revenue flows from OEM and aftermarket sales, with China-based joint ventures contributing nearly half of 2025 equity income from investees. A $1.9 billion EPA/CARB emission settlement was paid in 2024.

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