Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 7.6 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.89
- ▸Attractively valued
CHDN · Why this verdict
Why Churchill Downs (CHDN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 8.7 |
| Net margin | 6.6 |
| Current ratio | 2.2 |
| FCF quality | 2.6 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 32% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.3 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 8.4 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 58%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 1.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.4 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 4.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 7.0 |
| volatility | 4.9 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 4.4 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.9 |
| debt equity | 0.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.71
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.1 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 50.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:6.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
6.04
Upside
+37.5%
Downside
6.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 47
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 6.04 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 7.9, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 4.0, Momentum at 4.4, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.04 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.