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CERTCertara, Inc.Hold4.6·$5.16-2.06%
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Certara, Inc. (CERT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Health Information Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum.

Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia... Read more

$5.16+25.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#11 of 12 Health Information Services
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield14.41%
Stop $4.84Target $6.51(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$7.48+45.0%10 analysts
$6.51our TP
$5.16price
$7.48mean
$10

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 54d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-13
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202654d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$809M
EV/EBITDA10.3
Profit Mgn-3.6%
ROE-1.4%
Rev Growth0.9%
Beta1.49
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV191%elevated
Max Pain$3-51.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

5 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.8
Quality Rank
2.3
Value Rank
6.7

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.2
Macd
4.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Volatile — 6.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.6
Days To Cover
2.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Beta
5.0
Debt Equity
8.8
High short interest justified: 29%Elevated put/call: 2.00High IV: 191%Above max pain $2

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
2.7
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
0.0
Bollinger
5.3
Support Resistance
5.6
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 54d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.45Resistance $6.17

Price Targets

$5
$7
A.Upside+26.2%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum
! momentum at 2.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (54d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CERT stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $5.16, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $6.51 (+26.2%), stop $4.84 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CERT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $6.51 (+25.2% upside). Target $6.51 (+26.2%), stop $4.84 (−6.6%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $4.84.

What are the risks of investing in CERT?

Market cap $0.81B below $1B minimum.

Is CERT overvalued or undervalued?

Certara, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CERT?

20 analysts cover CERT with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $7.

What does Certara, Inc. do?Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for...

Certara, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology-driven services and software products for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific. It offers model-informed drug development solutions; biosimulation solutions to predict pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; Simcyp simulator, a mechanistic biosimulation platform for physiologically based pharmacokinetic simulation; Simcyp Discovery for scientists working on pre-investigational new drug and translational stages; Simcyp Biopharmaceutics for formulation scientists; and Simcyp Secondary Intelligence that integrates toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional biological changes. It also provides Phoenix WinNonlin, a platform for non-compartmental analysis; Phoenix cloud that offers a secured and validated Certara Amazon Web Services workspace; Phoenix NLME, a population modeling and simulation software; and Pirana Modeling Workbench, which provides modelers with a structure to facilitate the iterative processes. In addition, it offers Chemaxon JChem engines, a chemical search engine; Chemaxon Compound Registration that supports a streamlined lead optimization process workflow; Chemaxon Design Hub, a design and tracking platform; Certara D360 software, a scientific informatics system; and Chemaxon Marvin, a chemical drawing tool. Further, the company provides pinnacle 21, a cloud-based platform for clinical data automation, standardization, and validation; Pinnacle 21 Data Exchange to define data standards and specifications; Metadata Repository that enables study design using controlled and standardized data; CoAuthor software, which creates and writes regulatory submissions and medical publications; and GlobalSubmit, a submissions management software. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Radnor, Pennsylvania.

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