Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
CERT · Why this verdict
Why Certara (CERT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.5 |
| Gross margin | 8.3 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 9.6 |
| Moat | 6.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸FCF-positive despite GAAP loss (FCF margin 28%, FCF yield 14.0%)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
2.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.7 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 6.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 45%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 2.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 25%
- ▸High IV: 139%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $0.84B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.75
Upside
+26.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.49>1.3, MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Sentiment at 7.3, and Insider at 5.0; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Growth at 2.7, and Momentum at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.75 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.