Bridgewater Bancshares is cheaply valued (forward P/E 10.1x) with strong growth, but heavy commercial real estate concentration, price already above the analyst target and heavy insider selling limit upside.
Thesis pillars
- Cre Concentration Risk→Stable
- Attractive Bank Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Price Above Analyst Target↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%).
Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine full-service branches in the Twin Cities plus a Lake Elmo location added in February 2026, with a lending focus on commercial real estate and multifamily... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
About Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
About Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Bridgewater Bancshares held $5.41 billion in total assets, $4.31 billion in gross loans and $4.32 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating nine full-service, FDIC-insured branches for Bridgewater Bank across the Twin Cities MSA plus a new Lake Elmo location opened in February 2026. Growth has been driven primarily by commercial real estate and multifamily lending, with assets compounding at a 28.6% annual rate since the bank's 2005 founding.
Commercial real estate secured loans made up 69.9% of Bridgewater's total gross loan portfolio, and loans with real estate as a primary collateral component reached 85.8% of the portfolio, at December 31, 2025. The bank has particular expertise in multifamily financing, which it says carries lower historical loss rates than other CRE segments, and it has expanded affordable-housing lending nationally beyond its Twin Cities base. Deposits, the bank's primary funding source, include a mix of core and brokered funding; the 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for 16.2% of total deposits and the 10 largest borrowing relationships made up 15.3% of the gross loan portfolio. In the Twin Cities MSA, Bridgewater competes against Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank, which together control 58.96% of area deposit market share versus Bridgewater's 1.84%.
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Bridgewater's operations sit primarily within the Twin Cities MSA rather than a diversified multi-state footprint, so a regional downturn would weigh more heavily on the bank than on geographically spread competitors. The 10-K also flags the bank's CRE-to-capital ratio at 473.1% of the Bank's total risk-based capital, a level that subjects Bridgewater to heightened regulatory risk-management expectations under federal CRE concentration guidance and could require additional capital if regulators view the exposure as excessive.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Jerry Baack, Bridgewater Bancshares CEO, sells $567,764 in shares - Investing.com — Investing.com negative
- NEWS Jerry Baack Sells 11,334 Shares of Bridgewater Bancshares (NASDAQ:BWB) Stock - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) Institutional Confidence - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) Valuation: PE, PB & Fair Value Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS Bridgewater Bancshares Inc (BWB) Financial Health: Profitability & Balance Sheet Analysis - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate secured loans70%10-K Item 1A: 'Commercial real estate secured loans represented 69.9% of our total gross loan portfolio and 473.1% of the Bank's total risk-based capital at December 31, 2025'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate as primary collateral86%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 85.8% of our total gross loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary component of collateral'
- LOWCustomer10 largest borrowing relationships15%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, our 10 largest borrowing relationships accounted for approximately 15.3% of our total gross loan portfolio.'
- LOWCustomer10 largest depositor relationships16%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, our 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for approximately 16.2% of our total deposits.'
- MEDIUMGeographicTwin Cities MSA10-K Item 1A: 'Unlike larger banks that are more geographically diversified, we conduct our operations primarily in the Twin Cities MSA.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
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Price Targets
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Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $20.39, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%). Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $20.19 reached (−1.0%), stop $19.41 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $20.19 reached (−1.0% from $20.39); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $20.19 reached (−1.0%), stop $19.41 (−5.0%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $19.41.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.5 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover BWB with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $24.
What does Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. do?Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine...
Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine full-service branches in the Twin Cities plus a Lake Elmo location added in February 2026, with a lending focus on commercial real estate and multifamily properties. At December 31, 2025, the company had total assets of $5.41 billion, total gross loans of $4.31 billion, total deposits of $4.32 billion and total shareholders' equity of $517.1 million. The bank's 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for approximately 16.2% of total deposits.