BWB pairs a rare cheap-valuation-plus-strong-growth setup with a failed asymmetry gate after reaching its price target and notable recent insider selling.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Valuation Strong Growth→Stable
- Target Reached Negative Asymmetry→Stable
- Notable Insider Selling→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (BWB) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Banks - Regional
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%).
Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine full-service branches in the Twin Cities plus a Lake Elmo location added in February 2026, with a lending focus on commercial real estate and multifamily... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 15d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
About Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.
Bridgewater Bancshares held $5.41 billion in total assets, $4.31 billion in gross loans and $4.32 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, operating nine full-service, FDIC-insured branches for Bridgewater Bank across the Twin Cities MSA plus a new Lake Elmo location opened in February 2026. Growth has been driven primarily by commercial real estate and multifamily lending, with assets compounding at a 28.6% annual rate since the bank's 2005 founding.
Commercial real estate secured loans made up 69.9% of Bridgewater's total gross loan portfolio, and loans with real estate as a primary collateral component reached 85.8% of the portfolio, at December 31, 2025. The bank has particular expertise in multifamily financing, which it says carries lower historical loss rates than other CRE segments, and it has expanded affordable-housing lending nationally beyond its Twin Cities base. Deposits, the bank's primary funding source, include a mix of core and brokered funding; the 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for 16.2% of total deposits and the 10 largest borrowing relationships made up 15.3% of the gross loan portfolio. In the Twin Cities MSA, Bridgewater competes against Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank, which together control 58.96% of area deposit market share versus Bridgewater's 1.84%.
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Bridgewater's operations sit primarily within the Twin Cities MSA rather than a diversified multi-state footprint, so a regional downturn would weigh more heavily on the bank than on geographically spread competitors. The 10-K also flags the bank's CRE-to-capital ratio at 473.1% of the Bank's total risk-based capital, a level that subjects Bridgewater to heightened regulatory risk-management expectations under federal CRE concentration guidance and could require additional capital if regulators view the exposure as excessive.
See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional
From Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial real estate secured loans70%10-K Item 1A: 'Commercial real estate secured loans represented 69.9% of our total gross loan portfolio and 473.1% of the Bank's total risk-based capital at December 31, 2025'
- HIGHloan_portfolioreal estate as primary collateral86%10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 85.8% of our total gross loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary component of collateral'
- LOWCustomer10 largest borrowing relationships15%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, our 10 largest borrowing relationships accounted for approximately 15.3% of our total gross loan portfolio.'
- LOWCustomer10 largest depositor relationships16%10-K Item 1A: 'As of December 31, 2025, our 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for approximately 16.2% of our total deposits.'
- MEDIUMGeographicTwin Cities MSA10-K Item 1A: 'Unlike larger banks that are more geographically diversified, we conduct our operations primarily in the Twin Cities MSA.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
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Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $21.47 (+1.9%), stop $20.00 (−5.4%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $21.47 (+1.9% upside). Target $21.47 (+1.9%), stop $20.00 (−5.4%), A.R:R -1.1:1. Stop-loss: $20.00.
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial real estate secured loans (69.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: real estate as primary collateral (85.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover BWB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $22.
What does Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. do?Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine...
Bridgewater Bancshares is the holding company for Bridgewater Bank, a Minnesota-based commercial bank operating nine full-service branches in the Twin Cities plus a Lake Elmo location added in February 2026, with a lending focus on commercial real estate and multifamily properties. At December 31, 2025, the company had total assets of $5.41 billion, total gross loans of $4.31 billion, total deposits of $4.32 billion and total shareholders' equity of $517.1 million. The bank's 10 largest depositor relationships accounted for approximately 16.2% of total deposits.