Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.12
- ▸Attractively valued
BWB · Why this verdict
Why Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Bridgewater Bancshares is cheaply valued (forward P/E 10.1x) with strong growth, but heavy commercial real estate concentration, price already above the analyst target and heavy insider selling limit upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan book is concentrated, with 69.9% in commercial real estate secured loans and 85.8% with real estate as primary collateral. Bear case | Concentration stays stable or declines while credit quality holds. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRegional banks with high commercial real estate exposure have faced rising loss provisions when property values fall. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.12, which is cheap relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth holds so the multiple does not re-rate lower over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA low multiple on a commercial real estate lender may price in credit losses that the current earnings do not yet show. | ||
At $20.58 the stock is 1.9% above the $20.19 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers. Upside pct | Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterTargets are lagging estimates, and earnings growth of 7.8/10 could justify further target increases. | ||
Insiders sold $6.8M of stock, equal to 1.185% of market cap, which signals caution from those closest to the business. Insider breakdown | Insider selling fades to under 0.2% of market cap over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSelling by large holders in a small-cap bank is often for diversification or tax reasons, not a view on fundamentals. | ||
The loan book is concentrated, with 69.9% in commercial real estate secured loans and 85.8% with real estate as primary collateral.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Concentration stays stable or declines while credit quality holds.
CounterRegional banks with high commercial real estate exposure have faced rising loss provisions when property values fall.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.1x with a PEG of 0.12, which is cheap relative to its growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth holds so the multiple does not re-rate lower over 12 months.
CounterA low multiple on a commercial real estate lender may price in credit losses that the current earnings do not yet show.
At $20.58 the stock is 1.9% above the $20.19 analyst target, so limited upside remains on consensus numbers.
↓DeterioratingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets above the current price as earnings grow.
CounterTargets are lagging estimates, and earnings growth of 7.8/10 could justify further target increases.
Insiders sold $6.8M of stock, equal to 1.185% of market cap, which signals caution from those closest to the business.
→StableInsider breakdown
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades to under 0.2% of market cap over the next 12 months.
CounterSelling by large holders in a small-cap bank is often for diversification or tax reasons, not a view on fundamentals.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.4 |
| EPS growth | 7.8 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $6,232,952 (1.096% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.5 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 8.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:1.10%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.54
Upside
-2.8%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Value at 8.0; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Growth at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Technical at 4.2, and Insider at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 14x from the current 10.1x.
- P2Cre Concentration Risk
Trip ifCommercial real estate secured loans exceed 75% of the loan portfolio from the current 69.9%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice exceeds $23, about 14% above the $20.19 analyst target.
- P4Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling falls below 0.2% of market cap from the current 1.185%.