Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.85: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.13; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall panels, engineered wood), and distribution services to professional builders in US new residential construction and repair/remodeling. Operates approximately 585... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.85: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.13; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCommoditylumber and lumber sheet goods26%10-K Item 1A: 'Our lumber and lumber sheet goods product category represented 26% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $78.85: Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 2.13; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $75.25. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $105.21 (+33.5% upside). Prior stop was $75.25. Stop-loss: $75.25.
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).
Builders FirstSource, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
31 analysts cover BLDR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $117.
What does Builders FirstSource, Inc. do?Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall...
Builders FirstSource is a leading provider of structural building products, manufactured components (trusses, wall panels, engineered wood), and distribution services to professional builders in US new residential construction and repair/remodeling. Operates approximately 585 locations in 43 states.