BKSY carries a favorable modeled asymmetry and an oversold-in-uptrend setup, but declining revenue and cash burn keep its quality score below the engine's floor, with elevated short interest the engine calls justified and recent notable insider selling.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Declining Revenue→Stable
- Favorable Asymmetry Despite Drawdown→Stable
- Oversold Momentum In Uptrend↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 17, 2026
BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Specialty Business Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.11: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality.
BlackSky Technology designs, builds, and operates a constellation of high-resolution, low-earth-orbit smallsatellites paired with its BlackSky Spectra AI-enabled software platform, delivering real-time imagery and analytics over the world's most strategic locations. The company... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.11: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on clean insider activity and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About BlackSky Technology Inc.
About BlackSky Technology Inc.
BlackSky Technology operates a constellation of Gen-2 and Gen-3 low-earth-orbit smallsatellites capable of revisiting the most strategic locations on Earth up to 15 times per day, serving primarily U.S. federal defense and intelligence agencies alongside international governments in India, Indonesia, and other markets. In fiscal 2025, four customers each accounted for more than 10% of revenue, together representing 89% of total revenue, with commercial and industrial customers still a small portion of the business.
BlackSky generates revenue through three streams: subscription-based On-Demand and Assured imagery and AI-analytics services delivered through its BlackSky Spectra software platform; Mission Solutions, under which government customers acquire and operate their own Gen-3 satellites and ground systems for full national ownership; and advanced technology programs that integrate BlackSky's space-to-ground architecture into customer workflows. The company designs and manufactures its satellites in-house at a facility in Tukwila, Washington, a vertically integrated approach it says lowers per-unit costs versus outsourced alternatives. Government customer agreements are generally annual or multi-year subscriptions with tiered pricing that lets customers pay a premium to prioritize tasking during critical events. In June 2025, BlackSky unveiled plans for AROS, a new multispectral, large-area collection satellite line designed to complement its high-frequency Gen-3 monitoring satellites in a 'tip-and-cue' configuration.
Show full overview
BlackSky's revenue is structurally tied to U.S. government program funding rather than a diversified commercial base: the company is a key vendor on the NRO's Electro-Optical Commercial Layer program and the NGA's Luno A and Luno B economic and environmental monitoring programs, and its 10-K flags that defense-market customers generally purchase services tied to government programs subject to funding delays or shutdowns. With four customers accounting for 89% of fiscal 2025 revenue, a funding lapse, program cancellation, or single agency's shift toward in-house satellite capability could disproportionately affect results relative to a more diversified commercial imagery provider.
See also: Industrials · Specialty Business Services
From BlackSky Technology Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — BlackSky Technology Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS BlackSky Technology CEO Brian E. O'Toole Sells Shares — fiscal.ai Oct 23, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BlackSky Wins Expanded Seven-Figure Gen-3 Assured Contract with International Defense Partner — fiscal.ai Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS BlackSky Technology Receives Seven-Figure Gen-3 Assured Contract With Undisclosed Defense Partner — benzinga Oct 22, 2026 positive
- NEWS BlackSky to Host Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BlackSky Extends HEO Space Domain Awareness Agreement with New Seven-Figure Non-Earth Imaging Contract — fiscal.ai Oct 19, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop four customers89%10-K Item 1A: 'we had four and three customers respectively, that each accounted for more than 10% of our total revenue ... these customers accounted for 89% and 88% of our total revenue, respectively'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUMTracy Ward, SVP, Controller, and Principal Accounting Officer, resigned effective April 24, 2026 to pursue another opportunity; not the result of any dispute. CFO Henry Dubois appointed Principal Accounting Officer effective upon her departure. Clean handoff.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Volatile — 6.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -61.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.11: Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 5.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.50; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $17.77. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $33.43 (+74.9% upside). Prior stop was $17.77. Stop-loss: $17.77.
Concentration risk — Customer: top four customers (89.0%); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).
BlackSky Technology Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -53.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover BKSY with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $38.
What does BlackSky Technology Inc. do?BlackSky Technology designs, builds, and operates a constellation of high-resolution, low-earth-orbit smallsatellites...
BlackSky Technology designs, builds, and operates a constellation of high-resolution, low-earth-orbit smallsatellites paired with its BlackSky Spectra AI-enabled software platform, delivering real-time imagery and analytics over the world's most strategic locations. The company earns subscription revenue from its On-Demand and Assured imagery services plus Mission Solutions contracts letting governments acquire and operate their own Gen-3 satellite systems, serving U.S. defense and intelligence agencies including the NRO and NGA. In fiscal 2025, four customers each exceeding 10% of revenue tog