Value
6.7/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 3.2 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
BKSY · Why this verdict
Why BlackSky Technology (BKSY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.7/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Business quality registers at 3.0, below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by cash burn of -58% of revenue, a failing Rule of 40 score of -88, and declining revenue of -30% year-over-year. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and the Rule of 40 score should improve above 0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA satellite-imagery business investing heavily in capacity buildout can show temporary revenue declines and cash burn during a transition period without reflecting a structurally broken model. | ||
Despite a -47% drawdown from the 52-week high, the engine models a favorable asymmetry ratio of 1.76, with 26.4% upside to the analyst target against 15% downside. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should remain above 1.5 and analyst upside should stay above 20% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine separately finds no clear directional edge for this setup, suggesting the favorable modeled asymmetry may not translate into realized outperformance. | ||
The stock is oversold with an RSI of 29 while still in an uptrend, with on-balance volume rising in accumulation and price above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 while price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn oversold reading during a structural revenue decline could reflect the start of a genuine downtrend rather than a buy-the-dip opportunity. | ||
Short interest sits at an elevated 22%, which the engine characterizes as justified given the underlying business-quality concerns. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline below 15% as quality concerns are resolved or priced in over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterElevated short interest, if not matched by continued fundamental deterioration, can set up sharp short-covering rallies rather than confirming further downside. | ||
Insiders have sold $1,441,134 (0.139% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 3 transactions with no offsetting buys, generating a bearish insider signal at a minor severity. Insider transaction read | Insider activity should shift toward net buying or the bearish signal should moderate over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe severity is classified only as minor, suggesting the selling may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
Business quality registers at 3.0, below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by cash burn of -58% of revenue, a failing Rule of 40 score of -88, and declining revenue of -30% year-over-year.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and the Rule of 40 score should improve above 0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA satellite-imagery business investing heavily in capacity buildout can show temporary revenue declines and cash burn during a transition period without reflecting a structurally broken model.
Despite a -47% drawdown from the 52-week high, the engine models a favorable asymmetry ratio of 1.76, with 26.4% upside to the analyst target against 15% downside.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should remain above 1.5 and analyst upside should stay above 20% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe engine separately finds no clear directional edge for this setup, suggesting the favorable modeled asymmetry may not translate into realized outperformance.
The stock is oversold with an RSI of 29 while still in an uptrend, with on-balance volume rising in accumulation and price above its 200-day moving average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 while price continues to hold above the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months.
CounterAn oversold reading during a structural revenue decline could reflect the start of a genuine downtrend rather than a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Short interest sits at an elevated 22%, which the engine characterizes as justified given the underlying business-quality concerns.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline below 15% as quality concerns are resolved or priced in over the next 12 months.
CounterElevated short interest, if not matched by continued fundamental deterioration, can set up sharp short-covering rallies rather than confirming further downside.
Insiders have sold $1,441,134 (0.139% of market cap) over the past 90 days across 3 transactions with no offsetting buys, generating a bearish insider signal at a minor severity.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- Insider activity should shift toward net buying or the bearish signal should moderate over the next 12 months.
CounterThe severity is classified only as minor, suggesting the selling may reflect routine diversification rather than a negative view of the business.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BKSY carries a favorable modeled asymmetry and an oversold-in-uptrend setup, but declining revenue and cash burn keep its quality score below the engine's floor, with elevated short interest the engine calls justified and recent notable insider selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -58% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -88 (fail)
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -30%
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+9.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 56%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $1,441,134 (0.143% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
0.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.3 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 0.3 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.3 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.3 |
| days to cover | 7.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 1.4 |
| debt equity | 2.4 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 22%
- ▸High IV: 105%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.4 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.41
Upside
+36.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -51% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 7.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.5, Value at 6.7, and Technical at 5.2; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 0.4, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Floor Declining Revenue
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth rises above 0% from the current -30%.
- P2Favorable Asymmetry Despite Drawdown
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.76.
- P3Oversold Momentum In Uptrend
Trip ifRSI falls below 20 from the current 29.
- P4Elevated Short Interest Justified
Trip ifShort interest falls below 10% from the current 22%.
- P5Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider buying exceeds $200,000 over a 90-day period, reversing the current net selling of $1,441,134.