Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.86: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality.
Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584 communities in 41 states with ~51,000 resident capacity across independent living, assisted living/memory care, and CCRC segments. 2025 resident fee and management fee... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.86: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 58d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
About Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
Brookdale Senior Living operated 584 senior living communities across 41 states at December 31, 2025, with capacity for approximately 51,000 residents and total resident fee and management fee revenue of $3.1 billion for the year. The Assisted Living and Memory Care segment — 480 communities representing 63.3% of total units — contributed $2.1 billion, or 68.9% of resident fee and management fee revenue. Private pay residents generated 93.9% of consolidated resident fee revenue, with Medicare and Medicaid accounting for 4.8%.
Revenue flows through monthly fees across four service levels — independent living, assisted living, memory care, and CCRCs — supplemented by management fees on 36 third-party-managed communities. At year-end 2025, Brookdale owned 370 communities (33,262 units) and leased 178 (10,608 units), after completing two acquisitions on February 27, 2025: 25 communities from Diversified Healthcare Trust for $135.0 million and five from Welltower Inc. for $175.0 million. A December 2025 financing totaling $596.9 million refinanced all 2026 mortgage debt maturities, leaving $3.9 billion in outstanding mortgage principal. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the primary mortgage financing sources, and the 10-K flags reform of these government-sponsored enterprises as a risk to future refinancing access. On the competitive side, healthcare REITs Welltower and Ventas compete directly for senior housing assets, while Discovery Senior Living, Erickson Senior Living, and LCS are the named operator peers.
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The 10-K identifies a high concentration of communities in California, Florida, and Texas as a material geographic risk, noting that economic downturns, regulatory changes, and natural disasters — including hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, and tornadoes — in those states could adversely affect financial results. Simultaneously, the 65 communities leased under the Ventas master lease — extended through December 31, 2035 with one 10-year extension option remaining — concentrate lease counterparty exposure with a single REIT that competes directly for the same senior housing properties. The 10-K notes that any significant loss from weather events may not be covered by insurance and could lead to higher insurance costs or unavailability on acceptable terms.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-06-09Recent Developments — Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Compass Point Initiates Coverage On Brookdale Senior Living with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $22 — benzinga Jun 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS Earnings Scheduled For May 6, 2026 — benzinga May 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Brookdale Senior Living Q1 EPS $(0.03), Inline, Sales $764.856M Miss $769.639M Estimate — benzinga May 6, 2026 negative
- NEWS Stephens & Co. Initiates Coverage On Brookdale Senior Living with Overweight Rating, Announces Price Target of $18 — benzinga Apr 9, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerprivate pay residents94%10-K Item 1: 'we generated 93.9% of our consolidated resident fee revenue from private pay residents'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'We have a high concentration of communities in various geographic areas, including the states of California, Florida, and Texas'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-20Item 5.02LOWDr. Jordan R. Asher notified Brookdale he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Decision not due to any disagreement with Company, Board, or management. He will serve until his term expires at the 2026 Annual Meeting.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Unprofitable operations — net margin -6.8%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.86: Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 16%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $11.96. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $16.62 (+29.2% upside). Prior stop was $11.96. Stop-loss: $11.96.
Concentration risk — Customer: private pay residents (93.9%); Quality below floor (2.1 < 4.0).
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 107.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover BKD with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $19.
What does Brookdale Senior Living Inc. do?Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584...
Brookdale Senior Living is the largest U.S. operator of senior living communities, operating and managing 584 communities in 41 states with ~51,000 resident capacity across independent living, assisted living/memory care, and CCRC segments. 2025 resident fee and management fee revenue was $3.05B; 93.9% came from private-pay sources.