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BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya ArgentariaSell6.0·$24.45
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BBVA is a cheap, high-quality diversified bank (forward P/E about 9x, strong margins) but the stock already trades 4.2% above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so it suits holding rather than adding.

Thesis pillars

  • Low Forward Valuation→Stable
  • Strong Quality Margins→Stable
  • Mixed Earnings Record↑Improving
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also... Read more

$24.45-2.6% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#5 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.50%(5y avg 4.12%)Payout49.72%sustainable
Stop $23.42Analyst target $23.83(reached)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst consensus$28.03+14.6%3 analysts
$24.45price
$28.03mean
$30

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-30
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Date unconfirmed· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Earnings estimates trending DOWN

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.7
P/E (Fwd)9.0
Mkt Cap$134.5B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn32.6%
ROE18.9%
Rev Growth20.2%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.50%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.56bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$20-18.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $24.14Resistance $27.08

Price Targets

A.Upside-2.6%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.6% upside)
! News modifier -2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Date unconfirmed)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.45 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.42. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BBVA stock price target?

Analyst target $23.83 reached (−2.6% from $24.45); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $23.42. Stop-loss: $23.42.

What are the risks of investing in BBVA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.

Is BBVA overvalued or undervalued?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 9.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBVA?

31 analysts cover BBVA with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria do?Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain,...

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also engages in financial, insurance, asset management, and capital markets businesses, as well as digital banking. The company was formerly known as Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, S.A. and changed its name to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. in January 2000. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

Related stocks: MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group) · HSBC (HSBC Holdings, plc.) · ING (ING Group, N.V.)
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