Value
6.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.24
BBVA · Why this verdict
Why Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
BBVA is a cheap, high-quality diversified bank (forward P/E about 9x, strong margins) but the stock already trades 4.2% above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so it suits holding rather than adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 9.1x, BBVA is priced cheaply versus peers, offering a valuation cushion. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E stays below ~11x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cushion intact over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 2.24 implies growth is not cheap relative to the multiple, and the low P/E may simply reflect cyclical bank earnings that peak. | ||
Profitability is strong, with margins around 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating sound financial health. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins stay near 30% through the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on assets is only about 0.9 on the engine's scale and bank margins can compress quickly if rates fall or credit costs rise. | ||
Earnings delivery is mixed: two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, with the two most recent quarters beating by 2.74% and 3.69%. Earnings | EPS beats resume and average surprise turns positive across the next four quarters, starting with the report in 5 days. | →Stable |
| CounterTwo misses in the prior year and an average surprise of essentially 0% show no reliable beat pattern, and results are due in 5 days. | ||
The price of $24.88 is 4.2% above the $23.83 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.85. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised up above the current price, or the price retreats toward the target, within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a re-rating of the cheap multiple could carry the stock well beyond the current consensus target. | ||
Price momentum is weak at 3.9/10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution despite an oversold RSI of 29. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score recovers above 5/10 as the stock stabilizes above its 200-day average. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day moving average and an oversold RSI of 29 often precedes a rebound, so weakness may be temporary. | ||
At a forward P/E of 9.1x, BBVA is priced cheaply versus peers, offering a valuation cushion.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E stays below ~11x while earnings hold, keeping the valuation cushion intact over 12 months.
CounterA PEG of 2.24 implies growth is not cheap relative to the multiple, and the low P/E may simply reflect cyclical bank earnings that peak.
Profitability is strong, with margins around 33% and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating sound financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above and margins stay near 30% through the next four quarters.
CounterReturn on assets is only about 0.9 on the engine's scale and bank margins can compress quickly if rates fall or credit costs rise.
Earnings delivery is mixed: two beats and two misses in the last four quarters, with the two most recent quarters beating by 2.74% and 3.69%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS beats resume and average surprise turns positive across the next four quarters, starting with the report in 5 days.
CounterTwo misses in the prior year and an average surprise of essentially 0% show no reliable beat pattern, and results are due in 5 days.
The price of $24.88 is 4.2% above the $23.83 analyst target, leaving limited upside and a negative reward-to-risk ratio of -0.85.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up above the current price, or the price retreats toward the target, within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price, and a re-rating of the cheap multiple could carry the stock well beyond the current consensus target.
Price momentum is weak at 3.9/10, with falling on-balance volume signalling distribution despite an oversold RSI of 29.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score recovers above 5/10 as the stock stabilizes above its 200-day average.
CounterThe stock is still above its 200-day moving average and an oversold RSI of 29 often precedes a rebound, so weakness may be temporary.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.3 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.6 |
| EPS growth | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 20% YoY
Momentum
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.8 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 7.4 |
| growth rank | 8.5 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.9 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 5.56
- ▸Above max pain $20
Catalyst
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 2.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 2.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.51
Upside
-2.6%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 8.2; weakest: Catalyst at 4.0. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.2, Value at 6.8, and Peer rank at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.0, Momentum at 4.2, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.51 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 12x from the current 9.1x.
- P2Strong Quality Margins
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 8.
- P3Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $28 from the current $23.83.
- P5Weak Price Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.9.