BigBear.ai, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Information Technology Services
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.08: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 2.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.
BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI technology for defense, national security, travel, and trade sectors primarily to U.S. government customers via time-and-material (61% of 2025 revenue) and fixed-price (25%) contracts. The company acquired Ask Sage, a FedRAMP-authorized... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.08: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 2.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Score 2.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomercustomers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues51%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue earned from customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues was $65 million or 51% of revenue for the twelve months ended December 31, 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
6 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -37.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Unprofitable operations — net margin -230.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $4.08: Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 2.9/10. Specifically: High short interest: 25%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $3.79. Score 2.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $4.53 (+11.2% upside). Prior stop was $3.79. Stop-loss: $3.79.
Concentration risk — Customer: customers contributing in excess of 10% of consolidated revenues (51.0%); Quality below floor (1.9 < 4.0).
BigBear.ai, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -19.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
9 analysts cover BBAI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $5.
What does BigBear.ai, Inc. do?BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI technology for defense, national security, travel, and trade sectors primarily to...
BigBear.ai provides mission-ready AI technology for defense, national security, travel, and trade sectors primarily to U.S. government customers via time-and-material (61% of 2025 revenue) and fixed-price (25%) contracts. The company acquired Ask Sage, a FedRAMP-authorized generative AI platform with 100,000+ DoD users, in December 2025. Customers each contributing more than 10% accounted for 51% of 2025 revenue.