Booz Allen Hamilton has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 17.7%, and trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x with a PEG of 1.06 — but a confirmed death-cross downtrend, declining revenue of 6%, and only about 9% headroom to analyst targets leave the setup unfavorable for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Quality Amid Revenue Pressure↑Improving
- Government Concentration Structural Risk↓Deteriorating
- Valuation Discount With Peg Near One↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 22, 2026
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Consulting Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government.
Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil agencies, with commercial clients adding a smaller share. The company employs roughly 31,500 people, deriving 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue from... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost earnings 0.80, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
About Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
Booz Allen Hamilton derives substantially all revenue from U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil missions, with 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue flowing from 2,426 active task orders under IDIQ contract vehicles. The top IDIQ vehicle alone accounted for approximately 17% of revenue in fiscal 2026. At March 31, 2026, the company employed roughly 31,500 people across 23 countries, with about 77% holding security clearances. The Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest civil customer, contributing 10% of total revenue in fiscal 2026.
Revenue flows through three contract types: cost-reimbursable, time-and-materials, and fixed-price. A recent executive order titled "Promoting Efficiency, Accountability, and Performance in Federal Contracting" directs federal agencies to increase firm-fixed-price contracts for new awards and to restructure existing high-dollar contracts to fixed-price where practicable; Booz Allen notes this shift may increase the company's risk of incurring losses as fixed-price contracts transfer cost-overrun exposure to the contractor. The company operates as a single profit-and-loss center, enabling multidisciplinary team assembly across defense, intelligence, and civil markets. Core defense customers include all six branches of the U.S. military, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and Joint Combatant Commands; intelligence customers include the National Security Agency and Defense Intelligence Agency. In fiscal 2026, win rates were 57% on new contract awards and 89% on recompeted contracts across 5,026 total contracts and task orders.
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Congressional appropriations govern task-order funding, and the 10-K notes that a government shutdown, failure to raise the debt ceiling, or spending review could delay, reduce, or terminate active contracts. Booz Allen has already experienced contract impacts, reductions, and cancellations resulting from the U.S. government's review of federal spending, which has reduced total backlog. NDAA fiscal 2026 provisions aim to curb incumbent bid protests, though the 10-K cautions it remains too early to predict the practical impact on protest rates. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K the appointment of Troy Lahr as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 4, 2026.
See also: Industrials · Consulting Services
From Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor
Latest news
- NEWS Is It Too Late to Buy Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) Aft - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Is It Too Late to Buy Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp (BAH) After 3.6% Rally? GF Value Says Undervalued - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Shareholders Back Board, Reject Written Consent Push - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Gains From Steady Revenues Amid Rising Expenses - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Booz Allen Hamilton Gains From Steady Revenues Amid Rising Expenses - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomerU.S. government10-K Item 1A: 'We expect to continue to derive the vast majority of our revenue from work performed under U.S. government contracts'
- LOWCustomerDepartment of Veterans Affairs10%10-K Item 1: 'the Department of Veterans Affairs was the single largest customer in fiscal 2026, from which we derived 10% of our revenue'
- LOWCustomertop IDIQ contract vehicle17%10-K Item 1: 'Our top IDIQ contract vehicle represented approximately 17% of our revenue in fiscal 2026'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-27Item 5.02MEDIUMTroy Lahr appointed EVP and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) effective May 4, 2026. Previously CFO at Sierra Space; prior to that served approximately ten years at Boeing including as CFO for Boeing Defense, Space & Security. No departing CFO named in the filing.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard expanded from 12 to 13 directors effective June 1, 2026. Ryan Nolan appointed as new board member effective June 1, 2026; assigned to Audit Committee. Addition, not a replacement; no reason cited for expansion.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -3.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $84.23 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 83. Prior stop was $78.49. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $77.43 reached (−8.1% from $84.23); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $78.49. Stop-loss: $78.49.
Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 12.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover BAH with a consensus score of 2.8/5. Average price target: $89.
What does Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor do?Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense,...
Booz Allen Hamilton provides technology and consulting services almost exclusively to U.S. government defense, intelligence, and civil agencies, with commercial clients adding a smaller share. The company employs roughly 31,500 people, deriving 84% of fiscal 2026 revenue from 2,426 active IDIQ task orders, with the Department of Veterans Affairs as the single largest customer at 10% of revenue.