Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor (BAH) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the BAH stock price target?

Take-profit $85.11 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $73.23.

Q: Is BAH overvalued or undervalued?

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about BAH?

23 analysts cover BAH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $98.

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-02

Industrials · Consulting Services

Sell if holding. At $78.12, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government agencies (98.0%).

Booz Allen Hamilton is a U.S. government-focused advanced technology firm delivering AI, cyber, and digital transformation solutions to defense, intelligence, and civil agencies. U.S. government contracts accounted for 98% of fiscal 2025 revenue in a single operating segment.... Read more

$78.12+8.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#6 of 7 Consulting Services

Stop $73.23Target $85.11(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.4:1

Analyst target$97.83+25.2%12 analysts

$85.11our TP

$78.12price

$97.83mean

$160

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Attractive valuation

Risks

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government agencies (98.0%)

Thin upside margin: 8.9%

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5

P/E (Fwd)12.4

Mkt Cap$9.4B

EV/EBITDA10.0

Profit Mgn7.4%

ROE75.1%

Rev Growth-10.2%

Beta0.35

Dividend3.03%

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.11bearish

IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHCustomerU.S. government agencies98%
10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from contracts and task orders...with U.S. government agencies accounting for 98% of our revenue for fiscal year 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value7.615%1.14

Quality5.515%0.82

Growth2.215%0.33

Momentum2.910%0.29

Sentiment6.310%0.63

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.310%0.53

Technical Setup5.55%0.28

Risk Profile5.65%0.28

Catalyst6.85%0.34

Overall (Σ contributions)5.14

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -10.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

0.0

Earnings Growth

4.5

Declining revenue: -10%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd

0.0

Volume

0.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

3.5

Obv

10.0

Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 1.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate

RSI

37 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.50Resistance $85.63

Price Targets

$73

$85

A.Upside+8.9%

A.R:R1.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Reward/Risk 1.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

2/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-22 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is BAH stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $78.12, A.R:R 1.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government agencies (98.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $73.23. Score 5.2/10, high confidence.

What is the BAH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.11 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $73.23. Stop-loss: $73.23.

What are the risks of investing in BAH?

Concentration risk — Customer: U.S. government agencies (98.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.0): -1.5.

Is BAH overvalued or undervalued?

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BAH?

23 analysts cover BAH with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $98.

What does Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Cor do?Booz Allen Hamilton is a U.S. government-focused advanced technology firm delivering AI, cyber, and digital...