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Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved commercial products: AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (EDS), and SYMBRAVO (migraine), generating $638.5M in 2025 revenues (66% annual growth). The pipeline is led by... Read more

$204.51+2.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#38 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $193.21Target $212.66(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$223.90+9.5%21 analysts
$212.66our TP
$204.51price
$223.90mean
$260

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO
Target reached (-3.0% upside)
Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)36.5
Mkt Cap$10.7B
EV/EBITDA-65.7
Profit Mgn-28.7%
ROE-252.1%
Rev Growth65.0%
Beta0.47
DividendNone
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$100-51.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the success of our products ... Apart from AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO, we have no other products which have received regulatory approval.'
  • MEDIUMpipelineAXS-05 for AD agitation
    10-K Item 1A: 'Breakthrough Therapy designation by the FDA for AXS-05 for the treatment of AD agitation'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.2
Growth Rank
6.9

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
10.0
Forward P/E: 36.5xPEG: 0.14

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.8
52w Position
9.1
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 8.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $165.17Resistance $217.00

Price Targets

$193
$213
A.Upside+4.0%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXSM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $204.51: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $193.21. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXSM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $212.66 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $193.21. Stop-loss: $193.21.

What are the risks of investing in AXSM?

Concentration risk — Product: AUVELITY, SUNOSI, and SYMBRAVO; Target reached (-3.0% upside); Quality below floor (4.0 < 4.0).

Is AXSM overvalued or undervalued?

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 36.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXSM?

26 analysts cover AXSM with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. do?Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved...

Axsome Therapeutics is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on CNS disorders, with three FDA-approved commercial products: AUVELITY (MDD), SUNOSI (EDS), and SYMBRAVO (migraine), generating $638.5M in 2025 revenues (66% annual growth). The pipeline is led by AXS-05 for Alzheimer's disease agitation, with FDA Priority Review and a PDUFA date of April 30, 2026.

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