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AXIAAXIA EnergiaSell6.8·$10.57+2.82%
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AXIA Energia (AXIA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Renewable

Sell if holding. At $10.57, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a... Read more

$10.57+11.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#1 of 10 Utilities - Renewable
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield-1.84%
IncomeYield5.13%(5y avg 2.95%)Payout64.74%
Stop $10.02Target $11.79(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$13.87+31.2%3 analysts
$11.79our TP
$10.57price
$13.87mean
$15

Sell if holding. At $10.57, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Outperforming peers
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$23.1B
EV/EBITDA6.4
Profit Mgn21.9%
ROE7.9%
Rev Growth22.1%
Beta0.23
Dividend5.13%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MDividend: 513.0%
GatesA.R:R 1.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.5>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
47 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $9.60Resistance $11.12

Price Targets

$10
$12
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 1.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AXIA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $10.57, A.R:R 1.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 47 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $10.02. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AXIA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $11.79 (+11.6% upside). Prior stop was $10.02. Stop-loss: $10.02.

What are the risks of investing in AXIA?

Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is AXIA overvalued or undervalued?

AXIA Energia trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AXIA?

16 analysts cover AXIA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $14.

What does AXIA Energia do?AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization...

AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 43,072.7 MW; 798.7 MW wind power plants; and 67,030.74 km of transmission lines. The company was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Related stocks: RNW (ReNew Energy Global plc) · CWEN-A (Clearway Energy, Inc.) · MWH (SOLV Energy, Inc.) · ENLT (Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd.) · CWEN (Clearway Energy, Inc.)
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