A constructive technical setup—golden cross, above all moving averages—masks unfavorable economics: only 2.3% of headroom to the take-profit with a risk/reward of 0.5 to 1, free cash flow is negative, and both geographic and regulatory exposure are concentrated entirely within a single state and its regulator.
Thesis pillars
- Dual California Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Limited Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Concern→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026
American States Water Company (AWR) Stock Analysis
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water
Sell if holding. At $84.44, A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All... Read more
Sell if holding. At $84.44, A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — American States Water Company
Latest news
- NEWS American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) Increases Dividend to $0.55 Per Share - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS American States Water Company (AWR) Increases Dividend by 8.2% - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS American States Water (AWR) Projected to Announce Earnings on Wednesday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS American States Water Company Announces an 8.2% Increase in Quarterly Dividend - Business Wire — Business Wire positive
- NEWS Press Release: American States Water Company Announces an 8.2% Increase in Quarterly Dividend - Moomoo — Moomoo positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia10-K Item 1A: 'Our water and electric utility services are provided in California.'
- HIGHregulatoryCalifornia Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)10-K Item 1: 'GSWC is regulated by the California Public Utilities Commission ... also regulated by the CPUC.'
- MEDIUMCustomerU.S. government10-K Item 1: 'the U.S. government is the primary customer for ASUS's contracted services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-21Item 5.02LOWShareholders approved the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan on May 19, 2026, replacing the 2016 plan. Permits grants of stock options, restricted stock, RSUs, and performance awards to executive officers and directors. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOWOn March 26, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program for executive officers including CEO Robert J. Sprowls and CFO Eva G. Tang. Cash bonus with objective and discretionary components. Compensatory arrangement only.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-13Item 5.02LOWOn March 12, 2026, the Compensation Committee approved time-vested RSU and performance award RSU grants to CEO Robert J. Sprowls, CFO Eva G. Tang, and other senior officers. Compensatory arrangement; no departure or appointment.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $84.44, A.R:R is negative (-3.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $81.20. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $71.40 reached (−15.4% from $84.44); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $81.20. Stop-loss: $81.20.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California; Concentration risk — Regulatory: California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
American States Water Company trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 22.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover AWR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $84.
What does American States Water Company do?American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in...
American States Water Company operates three segments: a California water utility (GSWC, serving 265,142 customers in 11 counties), a California electric utility (BVES in San Bernardino County), and contracted water/wastewater services at U.S. military bases (ASUS). All regulated utility revenue comes from California under CPUC oversight; ASUS operates under 50-year firm-fixed-price U.S. government contracts.