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MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanyBuy Wait5.8·$55.38
Buy WaitModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Middlesex Water shows strong positive momentum that has turned overbought, alongside a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and a negative cash-flow-quality flag despite an already-reached price target.

Thesis pillars

  • Overbought Positive Momentum→Stable
  • Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
  • Analyst Target Reached↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 19, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Earnings today — results expected after close (2026-10-29). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $54.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $54.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and... Read more

$55.38-6.4% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#2 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.72%
IncomeYield2.60%(5y avg 1.81%)Payout54.83%sustainable
Entry $54.23(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $51.89Analyst target $51.85(reached)A.R:R -1.0:1
Analyst consensus$61.00+10.1%2 analysts
$55.38price
$61.00mean
$66

Wait for pullback to $54.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $54.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 2026Earnings today — results expected after close· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4
P/E (Fwd)18.7
Mkt Cap$1.0B
EV/EBITDA15.3
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.60%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV50%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.

No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
65 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $51.82Resistance $56.78

Price Targets

A.Upside-6.4%
A.R:R-1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! Earnings today - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (Earnings today — results expected after close)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSEX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $54.23. Price sits above the model's entry target of $54.23; the risk/reward becomes favorable on a pullback. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Analyst target $51.85 reached (−6.4%), stop $51.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSEX stock price target?

Analyst target $51.85 reached (−6.4% from $55.38); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $51.85 reached (−6.4%), stop $51.89 (−6.7%), A.R:R -1.0:1. Stop-loss: $51.89.

What are the risks of investing in MSEX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is MSEX overvalued or undervalued?

Middlesex Water Company trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 18.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MSEX?

9 analysts cover MSEX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Middlesex Water Company do?The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its...

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and White Marsh Environmental Systems, Inc. (White Marsh).

Related stocks: YORW (The York Water Company) · CWT (California Water Service Group) · AWR (American States Water Company) · CWCO (Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.) · HTO (H2O America)
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