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AWKAmerican Water Works Company, ISell4.5·$126.17-0.23%
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American Water Works Company, I (AWK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

American Water Works, the largest publicly-traded U.S. water and wastewater utility by operating revenues, provides drinking water and wastewater services to approximately 14 million people across 14 states through regulated utilities and military base contracts. Regulated... Read more

$126.17-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.5/10#5 of 6 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-7.68%
IncomeYield2.83%(5y avg 1.98%)Payout58.69%sustainable
Stop $120.47Target $125.48(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$135.64+7.5%11 analysts
$125.48our TP
$126.17price
$135.64mean
$155

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 48d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About American Water Works Company, I

About American Water Works Company, I

American Water Works served 3.6 million active customers across 14 states in 2025, generating $4,723 million in Regulated Businesses operating revenues — 92% of the company's total. Pennsylvania contributed 24.1% of regulated revenues ($1,140 million) and New Jersey 23.4% ($1,105 million). A pending stock-for-stock merger with Essential Utilities, announced October 26, 2025, would add Essential as a wholly-owned subsidiary; the company estimates closing by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

American Water earns revenue through cost-of-service rates authorized by state PUCs in each of its 14 regulated states, with rates designed to recover operating expenses and provide a return on invested capital. Residential customers generated 54% of water service revenues in 2025, commercial customers 21%, with fire service, industrial, and public/other customers each at 4–7%; wastewater services contributed 9% of regulated revenues. Infrastructure renewal drives capital deployment: the company plans to invest between $46 billion and $48 billion over the next 10 years, largely for pipe replacement and facility upgrades, targeting better than a 100-year pipe replacement rate within the decade. Infrastructure replacement surcharge mechanisms are approved in 9 states including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia to reduce regulatory lag between investment and rate recovery. The company also operates Other businesses providing water and wastewater services at U.S. military bases under firm-fixed-price contracts.

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Pennsylvania and New Jersey together represent approximately 47.5% of American Water's 2025 regulated operating revenues, concentrating rate-case outcome risk with two state PUCs. The California subsidiary Cal Am faces a separate regulatory constraint: orders from the California State Water Resources Control Board require elimination of Carmel River diversions, with Cal Am constructing a desalination plant and supporting the Monterey Peninsula groundwater replenishment project to comply. Noncompliance could expose Cal Am to fines and penalties. The EPA's April 2024 PFAS hazardous substance designation under CERCLA, reaffirmed in September 2025, also leaves the company's potential passive-receiver liability for PFAS remediation uncertain.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

From American Water Works Company, I's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-11
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202648d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.4
P/E (Fwd)19.3
Mkt Cap$24.7B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn21.2%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.61
Dividend2.83%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.60bearish
IV48%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.0
Revenue Growth
3.9

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
1.7
Quality Rank
5.0

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
1.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.5
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 283.0%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.4
Support Resistance
2.6
52w Position
7.4
GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 48d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $120.57Resistance $128.04

Price Targets

$120
$125
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (48d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AWK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $126.17 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 55. Prior stop was $120.47. Score 4.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AWK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $125.48 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $120.47. Stop-loss: $120.47.

What are the risks of investing in AWK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is AWK overvalued or undervalued?

American Water Works Company, I trades at a P/E of 22.4 (forward 19.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AWK?

18 analysts cover AWK with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $136.

What does American Water Works Company, I do?American Water Works, the largest publicly-traded U.S. water and wastewater utility by operating revenues, provides...

American Water Works, the largest publicly-traded U.S. water and wastewater utility by operating revenues, provides drinking water and wastewater services to approximately 14 million people across 14 states through regulated utilities and military base contracts. Regulated Businesses generated $4,723 million in 2025 (92% of total revenues), with Pennsylvania and New Jersey as the two largest states. A pending merger with Essential Utilities is expected to close by end of Q1 2027.

Related stocks: SBS (Companhia de saneamento Basico ) · AWR (American States Water Company) · WTRG (Essential Utilities, Inc.) · CWT (California Water Service Group)
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