Avista Corporation (AVA) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the AVA stock price target?

Entry $38.55, take-profit $41.47 (+7.6% upside). Target $41.47 (+0.7%), stop $36.95 (−11.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1.

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-05-01

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Avista Corporation is primarily an electric and natural gas utility serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon and Montana through Avista Utilities, plus electric service in Juneau, Alaska through subsidiary AEL&P. Revenue is regulated and established by... Read more

$41.19+7.6% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#4 of 5 Utilities - Diversified

Entry $38.55(200-day MA)Stop $36.95Target $41.47(resistance)A.R:R -1.9:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1

Analyst target$42.80+3.9%5 analysts

$41.47our TP

$41.19price

$42.80mean

$39

$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $41.16 has reached target $41.47. No upside to wait for. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.3

P/E (Fwd)14.7

Mkt Cap$3.4B

EV/EBITDA10.4

Profit Mgn9.8%

ROE7.3%

Rev Growth0.0%

Beta0.21

Dividend4.77%

Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish

IV54%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSupplierSnettisham hydroelectric project
10-K Item 1A: 'a single hydroelectric power generation facility, the Snettisham hydroelectric project, provides approximately two-thirds of AEL&P's hydroelectric power generation'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.215%0.93

Quality4.615%0.69

Growth2.515%0.38

Momentum4.810%0.48

Sentiment5.310%0.53

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank5.510%0.55

Technical Setup6.55%0.33

Risk Profile6.35%0.32

Catalyst4.05%0.20

Overall (Σ contributions)4.90

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth

2.5

Earnings Growth

2.6

GatesA.R:R -1.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

49 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.97Resistance $42.32

Price Targets

$37

$39

$41

A.Upside+0.7%

A.R:R-1.9:1

Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.5% upside)

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk

! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

1/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-05 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is AVA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $41.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $41.16 has reached target $41.47. No upside to wait for. Target $41.47 (+0.7%), stop $36.95 (−11.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AVA stock price target?

Take-profit target: $41.47 (+7.6% upside). Target $41.47 (+0.7%), stop $36.95 (−11.5%), A.R:R -1.9:1. Stop-loss: $36.95.

What are the risks of investing in AVA?

Concentration risk — Supplier: Snettisham hydroelectric project; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is AVA overvalued or undervalued?

Avista Corporation trades at a P/E of 17.3 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AVA?

14 analysts cover AVA with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Avista Corporation do?Avista Corporation is primarily an electric and natural gas utility serving eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and...