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AESThe AES CorporationSell5.4·$14.66-0.34%
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The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality.

AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in operation), regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, AES El Salvador serving 2.7M customers), energy infrastructure, and new energy technologies. The company entered... Read more

$14.66-1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#3 of 5 Utilities - Diversified
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-28.26%
IncomeYield4.78%(5y avg 3.83%)Payout36.66%sustainable
Stop $14.52Target $14.45(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$15.11+3.1%9 analysts
$14.45our TP
$14.66price
$15.11mean
$14
$16

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About The AES Corporation

About The AES Corporation

Renewables account for 54% of AES Corporation's 34,740 MW generation portfolio by installed capacity, with natural gas at 29%, coal at 15%, and oil and pet coke at 2%. The company's six utility businesses—including AES Indiana and AES Ohio in the U.S. and four utilities in El Salvador—distribute power to 2.7 million customers. In 2025, AES completed construction of 3.2 GW of new solar, energy storage, and wind and signed long-term power purchase agreements for 4.0 GW of renewables, bringing the total contracted backlog to 12.0 GW.

AES earns revenue through long-term power purchase agreements with utilities, industrial users, and corporate customers—including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google across its U.S. renewables portfolio—and through regulated utility tariffs at AES Indiana (subject to Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission oversight) and AES Ohio (subject to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio). Medium- and long-term contract sales—defined as two to five years and more than five years, respectively—are structured to recover fixed operating costs, debt service, and a return on capital, with fuel costs typically passed through directly or indexed contractually. AES Indiana filed a partial settlement agreement with the IURC in 2025 alongside a 20-year integrated resource plan; AES Ohio received PUCO approval for its distribution rate case and filed for multi-year base distribution rates for 2027 through 2029. The 12.0 GW contracted backlog—with 5.7 GW under construction at year-end 2025—represents the core of AES' forward generation revenue pipeline.

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AES' coal exposure adds transition complexity. The 15% of generation capacity from coal-fired plants faces declining insurance availability—the filing notes that certain insurers have opted to discontinue or limit offering insurance for such assets—while H.R. 1 (the 2025 Act) curtailed U.S. IRA renewable tax credits. If further policy changes reduce incentives, that could adversely affect AES' ability to finance new U.S. renewable projects and lower projected returns on its backlog, though contracts already signed may partially buffer near-term construction economics. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a transition of its Chief Accounting Officer, with Sherry Kohan moving to CFO of AES' U.S. Utilities and Aubrey Jarred appointed as VP and Controller.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Diversified

From The AES Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-10.3% upside)
Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.7
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$10.5B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn10.8%
ROE5.3%
Rev Growth8.7%
Beta0.95
Dividend4.78%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.32bearish
IV68%elevated

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-02Item 5.02HIGH
    AES entered Agreement and Plan of Merger with Horizon Parent L.P. (controlled by Global Infrastructure Management and EQT Infrastructure VI) on March 1, 2026. Each share to receive $15.00 cash. Change of control pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CAO Sherry Kohan stepping down May 7, 2026 to become CFO of AES US Utilities. Aubrey Jarred appointed VP and Controller effective same date. Clean handoff; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Roe
1.8
Roa
1.8
Current Ratio
2.9
Moat
4.2
Net Margin
5.4
Piotroski F
6.7
Operating Margin
7.5
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -219% FCF/NINo competitive moat
GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $14.33Resistance $14.74

Price Targets

$15
$14
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-10.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AES stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.66: Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 1.32; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $14.52. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.45 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $14.52. Stop-loss: $14.52.

What are the risks of investing in AES?

Target reached (-10.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.4 < 4.0).

Is AES overvalued or undervalued?

The AES Corporation trades at a P/E of 7.7 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AES?

18 analysts cover AES with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $15.

What does The AES Corporation do?AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in...

AES Corporation is a global power generator operating 34,740 MW across renewables (Renewables SBU, 17.8 GW in operation), regulated utilities (AES Indiana, AES Ohio, AES El Salvador serving 2.7M customers), energy infrastructure, and new energy technologies. The company entered a definitive merger agreement on March 1, 2026 with Horizon Parent L.P. (Global Infrastructure Management + EQT) at $15.00/share.

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