AES Corporation trades above its resistance-based take-profit level with negative asymmetry, and the analyst consensus target has been reached with an implied -11.1% return to that consensus; quality scores 3.4 out of 10, below the 4.0 minimum acceptable floor, with no identifiable competitive moat, deeply negative free cash flow, and an elevated put/call ratio of 2.57 reinforcing cautious market positioning — the preponderance of signals points toward exit, not entry.
Thesis pillars
- Stock Above Take Profit Negative Geometry→Stable
- Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Below Quality Floor No Moat↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
The AES Corporation (AES) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Utilities · Utilities - Diversified
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.40; Below-average business quality.
AES owns and/or operates 34,740 MW of global power generation across renewables, natural gas, coal, and integrated utilities, with AES Indiana and AES Ohio as U.S. regulated utilities and four utilities in El Salvador collectively serving 2.7 million customers. Revenue flows... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
About The AES Corporation
About The AES Corporation
Renewables account for 54% of AES Corporation's 34,740 MW generation portfolio by installed capacity, with natural gas at 29%, coal at 15%, and oil and pet coke at 2%. The company's six utility businesses—including AES Indiana and AES Ohio in the U.S. and four utilities in El Salvador—distribute power to 2.7 million customers. In 2025, AES completed construction of 3.2 GW of new solar, energy storage, and wind and signed long-term power purchase agreements for 4.0 GW of renewables, bringing the total contracted backlog to 12.0 GW.
AES earns revenue through long-term power purchase agreements with utilities, industrial users, and corporate customers—including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google across its U.S. renewables portfolio—and through regulated utility tariffs at AES Indiana (subject to Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission oversight) and AES Ohio (subject to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio). Medium- and long-term contract sales—defined as two to five years and more than five years, respectively—are structured to recover fixed operating costs, debt service, and a return on capital, with fuel costs typically passed through directly or indexed contractually. AES Indiana filed a partial settlement agreement with the IURC in 2025 alongside a 20-year integrated resource plan; AES Ohio received PUCO approval for its distribution rate case and filed for multi-year base distribution rates for 2027 through 2029. The 12.0 GW contracted backlog—with 5.7 GW under construction at year-end 2025—represents the core of AES' forward generation revenue pipeline.
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AES' coal exposure adds transition complexity. The 15% of generation capacity from coal-fired plants faces declining insurance availability—the filing notes that certain insurers have opted to discontinue or limit offering insurance for such assets—while H.R. 1 (the 2025 Act) curtailed U.S. IRA renewable tax credits. If further policy changes reduce incentives, that could adversely affect AES' ability to finance new U.S. renewable projects and lower projected returns on its backlog, though contracts already signed may partially buffer near-term construction economics. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K a transition of its Chief Accounting Officer, with Sherry Kohan moving to CFO of AES' U.S. Utilities and Aubrey Jarred appointed as VP and Controller.
See also: Utilities · Utilities - Diversified
From The AES Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — The AES Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS AES Corp Says European Commission Unconditionally Approves Aes Merger On October 15, 2026; NYPSC Issues Ruling Requirin — benzinga Oct 19, 2026 positive
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Spotlight On 3 Utilities Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Sep 30, 2026 positive
- NEWS U.S. Lawmakers Including Sen. Warren Ask Energy Regulators To Reject $33.4B AES Acquisition By BlackRock Subsidiary-led — benzinga Sep 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts Weigh In On 3 Utilities Stocks Delivering High-Dividend Yields — benzinga Sep 15, 2026 positive
- NEWS AES Receives CFIUS Approval For Merger With Global Infrastructure Management & EQT Infrastructure VI; Transaction Still — benzinga Aug 27, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommodityrenewables generation capacity54%10-K Item 1: '54% of the capacity of our generation plants is fueled by renewables, including solar, hydro, wind, energy storage, and landfill gas'
- MEDIUMCommoditynatural gas generation capacity29%10-K Item 1: '29% of the capacity of our generation plants is fueled by natural gas'
- LOWCommoditycoal generation capacity15%10-K Item 1: '15% of the capacity of our generation fleet is coal-fired'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUMChief Accounting Officer Sherry Kohan to cease serving as CAO effective May 7, 2026, transitioning internally to CFO of AES' U.S. Utilities. Aubrey Jarred appointed VP and Controller as successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.98: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.40; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $14.88. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $13.05 reached (−12.9% from $14.98); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $14.88. Stop-loss: $14.88.
Concentration risk — Commodity: renewables generation capacity (54.0%); Target reached (-12.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.7 < 4.0).
The AES Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.6 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
17 analysts cover AES with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $15.
What does The AES Corporation do?AES owns and/or operates 34,740 MW of global power generation across renewables, natural gas, coal, and integrated...
AES owns and/or operates 34,740 MW of global power generation across renewables, natural gas, coal, and integrated utilities, with AES Indiana and AES Ohio as U.S. regulated utilities and four utilities in El Salvador collectively serving 2.7 million customers. Revenue flows from long-term power purchase agreements with utilities, industrial users, and corporate customers, supplemented by regulated tariffs in the U.S. and El Salvador.