Value
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.0 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.1x
- ▸PEG: 2.66
AVA · Why this verdict
Why Avista (AVA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.3 |
| Op margin | 9.5 |
| Net margin | 5.4 |
| Current ratio | 3.6 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -84% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -17 (fail)
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -8%
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 8.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.40 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $65,277 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.0 |
| quality rank | 6.0 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 9.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 7.3 |
| put call | 1.7 |
| implied vol | 4.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.75
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:53d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.16
Upside
-13.5%
Downside
6.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $3.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.16 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1, and Value at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Catalyst at 3.8, and Peer rank at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.16 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.