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ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.Sell4.1·$74.52+0.15%
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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue... Read more

$74.52+2.9% A.UpsideScore 4.1/10#151 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield-0.44%
Stop $69.30Target $76.71(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$88.17+18.3%12 analysts
$76.71our TP
$74.52price
$88.17mean
$46
$110

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' first commercial product, REDEMPLO (plozasiran), received FDA approval in November 2025 as the first and only siRNA treatment for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome. The company held 18 drug candidates in clinical trials at the time of filing—including Phase 3 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia—and maintained collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis, which provide non-dilutive capital to support the wholly-owned pipeline through commercialization.

Arrowhead generates revenue through REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration payments from partners. The Takeda agreement for fazirsiran (ARO-AAT) provides co-development funding and a 50/50 U.S. profit share if approved; outside the United States, Takeda holds an exclusive license and Arrowhead is eligible for 20-25% tiered royalties on net sales. Amgen owns olpasiran (ARO-LPA), a lipoprotein(a)-targeting siRNA in Phase 3 for cardiovascular disease; Arrowhead sold its royalty rights to Royalty Pharma but remains eligible for up to $485 million in remaining milestone payments from Amgen and Royalty Pharma combined. The Sarepta agreement executed in November 2024 covers multiple clinical and preclinical muscle, CNS, and lung programs. The Novartis agreement executed in August 2025 and closed October 2025 covers ARO-SNCA for synucleinopathies including Parkinson's disease. Manufacturing for clinical supplies and commercial products depends on third-party contract manufacturers, as Arrowhead holds limited internal manufacturing capacity.

Show full overview

The plozasiran program carries a distinct Phase 3 readout event beyond the FCS label: SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and SHASTA-5 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia were fully enrolled at the time of filing, with a supplemental NDA planned for 2026 pending successful completion. The 10-K explicitly notes that REDEMPLO's Phase 3 PALISADE success in FCS does not guarantee approval in sHTG because endpoints and clinical data requirements differ between a rare-disease indication and a broader patient population.

See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology

From Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: single approved product
Target reached (2.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-17.2
Mkt Cap$10.5B
EV/EBITDA-51.3
Profit Mgn-48.4%
ROE-42.4%
Rev Growth-86.4%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV92%elevated
Max Pain$110+47.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductsingle approved product
    10-K Item 1A: 'we have only one product based on RNAi and our delivery technologies approved in November 2025'
  • MEDIUMSupplierthird-party manufacturers
    10-K Item 1A: 'must rely on third-party manufacturers to manufacture certain of our clinical supplies and our commercial products'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
2.2
Value Rank
3.6

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Analyst Target
5.0
Expensive valuation
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Unprofitable operations — net margin -48.4%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Rule Of 40
3.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Moat
4.0
Current Ratio
6.8
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -7% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -94 (fail)Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $69.30Resistance $80.19

Price Targets

$69
$77
A.Upside+2.9%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $74.52: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $69.30. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $76.71 (+2.9% upside). Prior stop was $69.30. Stop-loss: $69.30.

What are the risks of investing in ARWR?

Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; Target reached (2.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.0 < 4.0).

Is ARWR overvalued or undervalued?

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARWR?

20 analysts cover ARWR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $88.

What does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran)...

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue flows from REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis.

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