Free cash flow is negative, the Rule of 40 fails at negative 94, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9 reflects broad financial weakness, and a single approved product carries all commercial risk; with only 1.9% headroom to the near-term resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward, two recent earnings beats introduce modest optimism but do not yet support an attractive setup at current prices.
Thesis pillars
- Single Product Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Minimal Upside Unfavorable Setup↑Improving
- Negative Fcf Weak Fundamentals→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $82.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1).
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $82.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
About Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' first commercial product, REDEMPLO (plozasiran), received FDA approval in November 2025 as the first and only siRNA treatment for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome. The company held 18 drug candidates in clinical trials at the time of filing—including Phase 3 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia—and maintained collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis, which provide non-dilutive capital to support the wholly-owned pipeline through commercialization.
Arrowhead generates revenue through REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration payments from partners. The Takeda agreement for fazirsiran (ARO-AAT) provides co-development funding and a 50/50 U.S. profit share if approved; outside the United States, Takeda holds an exclusive license and Arrowhead is eligible for 20-25% tiered royalties on net sales. Amgen owns olpasiran (ARO-LPA), a lipoprotein(a)-targeting siRNA in Phase 3 for cardiovascular disease; Arrowhead sold its royalty rights to Royalty Pharma but remains eligible for up to $485 million in remaining milestone payments from Amgen and Royalty Pharma combined. The Sarepta agreement executed in November 2024 covers multiple clinical and preclinical muscle, CNS, and lung programs. The Novartis agreement executed in August 2025 and closed October 2025 covers ARO-SNCA for synucleinopathies including Parkinson's disease. Manufacturing for clinical supplies and commercial products depends on third-party contract manufacturers, as Arrowhead holds limited internal manufacturing capacity.
Show full overview
The plozasiran program carries a distinct Phase 3 readout event beyond the FCS label: SHASTA-3, SHASTA-4, and SHASTA-5 studies for severe hypertriglyceridemia were fully enrolled at the time of filing, with a supplemental NDA planned for 2026 pending successful completion. The 10-K explicitly notes that REDEMPLO's Phase 3 PALISADE success in FCS does not guarantee approval in sHTG because endpoints and clinical data requirements differ between a rare-disease indication and a broader patient population.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-13Recent Developments — Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowhead (ARWR) Stock Outlook | Q1 2026: Profit Disappoints - PEG Ratio - Newser — Newser negative
- NEWS Arrowhead (ARWR) Stock Outlook | Q1 2026: Profit Disappoints - Event Driven - Newser — Newser neutral
- NEWS Why Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Is Up 6.8% After Australia Approves First-In-Class FCS Therapy REDEMPLO - simplywal — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS JPMorgan Expects Arrowhead Pharma Stock to Rally on RNAi Portfolio Growth - TIKR.com — TIKR.com positive
- NEWS ARWR rallies 7% this week as Europe edges closer to Redemplo approval amid analyst optimism - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-09-14T05:21:57Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductsingle approved product10-K Item 1A: 'we have only one product based on RNAi and our delivery technologies approved in November 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierthird-party manufacturers10-K Item 1A: 'must rely on third-party manufacturers to manufacture certain of our clinical supplies and our commercial products'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $82.79 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $77.92. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $95.70 (+15.5% upside). Prior stop was $77.92. Stop-loss: $77.92.
Concentration risk — Product: single approved product; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.0): -1.5.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -17.2). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover ARWR with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $110.
What does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran)...
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform, with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) receiving FDA approval in November 2025 for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome as its first commercial product, plus 18 drug candidates in clinical trials. Revenue flows from REDEMPLO product sales and licensing and collaboration agreements with Takeda, GSK, Amgen, Sarepta, and Novartis.