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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: REDEMPLO.

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform to silence disease-causing genes, with 18 clinical-stage drug candidates. It achieved its first commercial launch in 2025 with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome.... Read more

$74.43+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#42 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $69.33Target $74.95(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$84.18+13.1%11 analysts
$74.95our TP
$74.43price
$84.18mean
$35
$110

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: REDEMPLO. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: REDEMPLO
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.9
P/E (Fwd)-16.3
Mkt Cap$10.3B
EV/EBITDA30.9
Profit Mgn18.5%
ROE75.5%
Rev Growth10461.3%
Beta1.27
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$35-53.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductREDEMPLO
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our prospects substantially depend on the success of our clinical-stage product candidates...or successfully commercialize REDEMPLO, our business could be materially harmed.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
2.7
Ps
3.8
Analyst Target
4.0
GatesA.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
71 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.25Resistance $76.48

Price Targets

$69
$75
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARWR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $74.43 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: REDEMPLO. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $69.33. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ARWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $74.95 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $69.33. Stop-loss: $69.33.

What are the risks of investing in ARWR?

Concentration risk — Product: REDEMPLO; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.9% away).

Is ARWR overvalued or undervalued?

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. trades at a P/E of 45.9 (forward -16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARWR?

19 analysts cover ARWR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $84.

What does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. do?Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform to silence disease-causing...

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNAi therapeutics using its proprietary TRiM platform to silence disease-causing genes, with 18 clinical-stage drug candidates. It achieved its first commercial launch in 2025 with REDEMPLO (plozasiran) for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome. Multiple programs are licensed to partners including Sarepta, Amgen, Takeda, GSK, and Novartis.

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