Apollo Commercial Real Estate's momentum has stalled below the minimum threshold, estimates are declining and the most recent quarter missed by 24%, put/call options skew sits at 1.46-to-1 bearish, and only 1.9% upside remains to the near-term resistance target — a setup that does not reward entering a new position at current levels.
Thesis pillars
- Momentum Stalled Below Threshold→Stable
- Estimates Declining Large Recent Miss↑Improving
- Unfavorable Risk Reward Near Target→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 10, 2026
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis
Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Wait for pullback to $6.20. At $6.56 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 3.7%.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and... Read more
Wait for pullback to $6.20. At $6.56 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F
Latest news
- NEWS Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (NYSE:ARI) Hits New 12-Month Low - Here's What Happened - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Scratch Golf- Interviews w/ Don White & Owner Ari - GolfWRX — GolfWRX neutral
- NEWS Managers' Transactions - Ari Isomäki - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Ari Emanuel Backs Paramount-WBD Deal In WSJ Op-Ed, Blasts States’ Antitrust Lawsuit As “Trash” - deadline.com — deadline.com positive
- NEWS Principal Financial Group Inc. Decreases Holdings in Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance $ARI - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-29T11:53:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartythe Manager (Apollo)10-K Item 1: 'We have no employees and are managed by the Manager pursuant to the management agreement between the Manager and us'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOWDirector Scott S. Prince informed the company on May 14, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the next annual meeting; explicitly not the result of any dispute with the company.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.01MEDIUMOn April 24, 2026, the company entered an Amended and Restated Management Agreement with the Manager, changing the base management fee from a flat 1.5% of stockholders' equity to an ROE-linked 0.75%/1.5% structure paid in stock rather than cash.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-24Item 1.02MEDIUMThe new Amended and Restated Management Agreement superseded and replaced the existing Management Agreement dated September 23, 2009 between the company and the Manager.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $6.20. At $6.56 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $6.20 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 3.7%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Earnings today. Wait until post-earnings. Target $6.80 (+3.7%), stop $5.94 (−10.4%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $6.80 (+3.7% upside). Target $6.80 (+3.7%), stop $5.94 (−10.4%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $5.94.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: the Manager (Apollo); Thin upside margin: 3.7%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 8.2 (forward 28.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
9 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance is a commercial mortgage REIT externally managed by an Apollo Global Management subsidiary, originating and holding first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate debt secured by institutional-quality U.S. and European properties. As of December 31, 2025 it held an approximately $8.7 billion mortgage loan portfolio financed with $6.3 billion of secured debt, $746.3 million of term loans, and $500.0 million of senior secured notes, and in January 2026 it agreed to sell substantially all of that portfolio to Apollo affiliate A