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ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate FSell4.8·$11.00+1.57%
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Apollo Commercial Real Estate F (ARI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away).

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified... Read more

$11.00-1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 17 REIT - Mortgage
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield9.23%(5y avg 11.77%)Payout123.46%
Stop $10.66Target $10.86(resistance)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst target$11.60+5.5%5 analysts
$10.86our TP
$11.00price
$11.60mean
$11
$12

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09

Recent Developments — Apollo Commercial Real Estate F

Generated 2026-06-15T18:11:46Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.1% away)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)14.8
Mkt Cap$1.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn47.3%
ROE6.9%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.41
Dividend9.23%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.48bearish
IV73%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.0
Revenue Growth
2.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
3.1
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
3.5
Dividend Safety
3.5
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $10.70Resistance $11.08

Price Targets

$11
$11
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $11.00 — A.R:R is negative (-1.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (2.1% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $10.66. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ARI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $10.86 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $10.66. Stop-loss: $10.66.

What are the risks of investing in ARI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.1% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is ARI overvalued or undervalued?

Apollo Commercial Real Estate F trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARI?

10 analysts cover ARI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Apollo Commercial Real Estate F do?Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires,...

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments. The company is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

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