Skip to main content

Applovin Corporation (APP) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Advertising Agencies

Wait for pullback to $466.52. At $512.50 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $466.52 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV advertisers to acquire users and monetize content at scale globally. Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of total revenue; the company sold... Read more

$512.50+19.3% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 9 Advertising Agencies
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.97%
Entry $466.52(Gap Fill 50 Sticky)Stop $397.10Target $592.91(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 1.0:1Setup A.R:R 2.8:1
Analyst target$644.47+25.7%30 analysts
$592.91our TP
$512.50price
$644.47mean
$340
$860

Wait for pullback to $466.52. At $512.50 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $466.52 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Growth is outpacing valuation and the chart agrees (PEG 1.32, quality 9.2/10, growth 10.0/10). | Poor entry (EQ=3.0): wait for pullback. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.2Qual9.2Grw10.0Mom7.6Sent8.0Ins3.4Peer5.8Tech2.3Risk4.16.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Applovin Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-27T18:02:07Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Entry quality score: 3.0/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.8
P/E (Fwd)22.0
Mkt Cap$161.8B
EV/EBITDA33.4
Profit Mgn64.3%
ROE266.4%
Rev Growth59.0%
Beta2.37
DividendNone
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.01bearish
IV81%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAxon Ads Manager
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of our revenue.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-07Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CTO Basil Shikin stepping down July 1, 2026 (remaining as Distinguished Engineer); CLO Victoria Valenzuela retiring August 1, 2026 (consulting until May 2027). Successors named: Giovanni Ge as CTO, Corina Cacovean as CLO. Board also expanded.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.1
Support Resistance
2.3
Gap
3.0
52w Position
3.8
Extreme gap up (7.1%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $430.25Resistance $538.82

Price Targets

$397
$467
$593
A.Upside+15.7%
A.R:R1.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APP stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $466.52. At $512.50 the A.R:R is 1.0:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $466.52 (Gap Fill 50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Growth is outpacing valuation and the chart agrees (PEG 1.32, quality 9.2/10, growth 10.0/10). | Poor entry (EQ=3.0): wait for pullback. Target $592.91 (+15.7%), stop $397.10 (−29.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $592.91 (+19.3% upside). Target $592.91 (+15.7%), stop $397.10 (−29.1%), Setup A.R:R 2.8:1. Stop-loss: $397.10.

What are the risks of investing in APP?

Concentration risk — Product: Axon Ads Manager; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Entry quality score: 3.0/10.

Is APP overvalued or undervalued?

Applovin Corporation trades at a P/E of 41.8 (forward 22.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about APP?

36 analysts cover APP with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $644.

What does Applovin Corporation do?AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV...

AppLovin provides AI-powered advertising solutions (Axon Ads Manager, MAX, Adjust, Wurl) enabling mobile app and CTV advertisers to acquire users and monetize content at scale globally. Revenue from Axon Ads Manager comprises substantially all of total revenue; the company sold its Apps gaming business on June 30, 2025 to focus purely on advertising technology.

Related stocks: OMC (Omnicom Group Inc.) · META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) · RCI (Rogers Communication, Inc.) · RDDT (Reddit, Inc.) · NWS (News Corporation)