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Applied Digital Corporation (APLD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Information Technology Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.34: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Applied Digital designs and operates data center infrastructure for blockchain and HPC/AI workloads, with all current facilities in North Dakota. A single crypto mining customer accounted for 93% of FY2025 continuing operations revenue. The HPC Hosting Business (Polaris Forge 1,... Read more

$42.34+16.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#22 of 34 Information Technology Services
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-14.30%
Stop $36.75Target $46.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$53.10+25.4%10 analysts
$46.20our TP
$42.34price
$53.10mean
$97

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.34: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Applied Digital Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T23:21:19Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-52.3
Mkt Cap$10.5B
EV/EBITDA902.4
Profit Mgn-59.5%
ROE-5.6%
Rev Growth139.3%
Beta5.70
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV125%elevated
Max Pain$15-64.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Hyper-growth tech sacrificing current profitability for scale. Floor tripped because model treats negative margins uniformly; the growth dimension tells the other half of the story.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Gross Margin
5.1
Current Ratio
8.1
Cash-burning: FCF -469% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.5
Value Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
9.7
Industry growth leader

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
4.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $30.51Resistance $47.79

Price Targets

$37
$46
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APLD stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.34: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: High short interest: 30%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 58 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.75. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APLD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.20 (+16.9% upside). Prior stop was $36.75. Stop-loss: $36.75.

What are the risks of investing in APLD?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0).

Is APLD overvalued or undervalued?

Applied Digital Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -52.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about APLD?

19 analysts cover APLD with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $53.

What does Applied Digital Corporation do?Applied Digital designs and operates data center infrastructure for blockchain and HPC/AI workloads, with all current...

Applied Digital designs and operates data center infrastructure for blockchain and HPC/AI workloads, with all current facilities in North Dakota. A single crypto mining customer accounted for 93% of FY2025 continuing operations revenue. The HPC Hosting Business (Polaris Forge 1, 250 MW) is under construction and fully leased to one customer.

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