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APHAmphenol CorporationBuy Wait6.3·$158.00+3.63%
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Amphenol Corporation (APH) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Technology · Electronic Components

Wait for pullback to $134.56. At $158.00 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $134.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. markets (65.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply.

Amphenol Corporation designs and manufactures electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems, antennas, sensors, and cable across three segments globally. Approximately 65% of 2025 net sales came from non-U.S. markets, with IT datacom (including AI)... Read more

$158.00+12.5% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#1 of 24 Electronic Components
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.88%
IncomeYield0.65%(5y avg 0.84%)Payout23.85%sustainable
Entry $134.56(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $120.13Target $164.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$183.28+16.0%18 analysts
$164.95our TP
$158.00price
$183.28mean
$135
$215

Wait for pullback to $134.56. At $158.00 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $134.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. markets (65.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.32, quality 7.7/10, growth 8.4/10). Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. markets (65.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply
Thin upside margin: 7.2%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)44.2
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$189.2B
EV/EBITDA24.9
Profit Mgn17.2%
ROE36.8%
Rev Growth58.4%
Beta1.27
Dividend0.65%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV99%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. markets65%
    10-K Item 1A: 'non-U.S. markets constituted approximately 65% of the Company's net sales, with China constituting approximately 16% of the Company's net sales'
  • LOWGeographicChina16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'China constituting approximately 16% of the Company's net sales'
  • MEDIUMProductIT datacom market36%
    10-K Item 1: 'Sales into the IT datacom market represented approximately 36% of the Company’s net sales in 2025'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle source of supply
    10-K Item 1A: 'In limited instances, we depend on a single source of supply ... and for some components, alternative sources may not exist'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $118.01Resistance $159.80

Price Targets

$120
$135
$165
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is APH stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $134.56. At $158.00 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $134.56 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. markets (65.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 70, MACD bullish. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.32, quality 7.7/10, growth 8.4/10). Target $164.95 (+4.4%), stop $120.13 (−31.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the APH stock price target?

Take-profit target: $164.95 (+12.5% upside). Target $164.95 (+4.4%), stop $120.13 (−31.5%), Setup A.R:R 1.8:1. Stop-loss: $120.13.

What are the risks of investing in APH?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. markets (65.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single source of supply; Thin upside margin: 7.2%.

Is APH overvalued or undervalued?

Amphenol Corporation trades at a P/E of 44.2 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about APH?

24 analysts cover APH with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $183.

What does Amphenol Corporation do?Amphenol Corporation designs and manufactures electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems,...

Amphenol Corporation designs and manufactures electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems, antennas, sensors, and cable across three segments globally. Approximately 65% of 2025 net sales came from non-U.S. markets, with IT datacom (including AI) representing roughly 36% of net sales; no single customer accounted for 10% or more of sales.

Related stocks: CLS (Celestica, Inc.) · TEL (TE Connectivity plc) · FN (Fabrinet) · JBL (Jabil Inc.) · TTMI (TTM Technologies, Inc.)
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