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AONAon plcSell5.9·$331.98-0.99%
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Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. At $331.98, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 4.1%.

Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue... Read more

$331.98+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#5 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.67%
IncomeYield0.98%(5y avg 0.76%)Payout16.36%sustainable
Stop $316.41Target $345.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$384.11+15.7%19 analysts
$345.69our TP
$331.98price
$384.11mean
$298
$436

Sell if holding. At $331.98, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Aon plc

About Aon plc

Aon plc's Risk Capital segment generated $11.3 billion in 2025 revenue and Human Capital contributed $5.9 billion, producing total consolidated revenue of $17.2 billion across 120+ countries, with approximately 51.8% of that revenue derived from non-U.S. operations attributed to where services are performed. The firm employs roughly 60,000 people and competes against Marsh McLennan, Willis Towers Watson, and Arthur J. Gallagher & Company across virtually every geography.

Aon earns revenue through commissions tied to insurance and reinsurance premiums — a structure that fluctuates with the insurance pricing cycle — and through fees for advisory, analytics, and plan-administration services that are less market-sensitive. Risk Capital's commercial risk brokerage organizes around industry verticals (property, casualty, cyber, energy, and others) and accesses capacity through Global Broking Centers in London, Bermuda, and Singapore. Reinsurance Solutions includes treaty and facultative placement plus capital markets advisory. Human Capital spans health consulting and benefits design for multinational employers, retirement actuarial and pension risk-transfer advisory, and talent benchmarking — each billed as fee-for-service or subscription arrangements. Aon Securities LLC, an indirect subsidiary registered with FINRA and SIPC, handles U.S. investment banking, capital advisory, and broker-dealer activity. The company held $15.2 billion of consolidated debt at year-end 2025, with financial covenants requiring maintenance of specified EBITDA-to-interest and debt-to-EBITDA ratios tested quarterly.

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Aon's global licensing footprint subjects it to multi-regulator oversight simultaneously: the FCA in the U.K., the SEC, DOL, and FINRA in the U.S. for its investment advisory and retirement consulting subsidiaries, and insurance-regulatory bodies across jurisdictions where its operating entities hold producer, broker, or reinsurance intermediary licenses. Certain jurisdictions issue licenses only to resident entities, requiring Aon to maintain local licensing arrangements subject to ongoing renewal. If regulators in any material jurisdiction revoke or decline to renew a key license, the company's ability to place business in that market could be impaired.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

From Aon plc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 24, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.4
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$71.6B
EV/EBITDA14.7
Profit Mgn22.5%
ROE46.4%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta0.71
Dividend0.98%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV54%elevated
Max Pain$480+44.6% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.9
Value Rank
4.2
Quality Rank
8.9
Superior ROE vs peersBest-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
65 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $311.07Resistance $340.76

Price Targets

$316
$346
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.7 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-24 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $331.98, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 4.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 65. Prior stop was $316.41. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $345.69 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $316.41. Stop-loss: $316.41.

What are the risks of investing in AON?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AON overvalued or undervalued?

Aon plc trades at a P/E of 18.4 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AON?

29 analysts cover AON with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $384.

What does Aon plc do?Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital...

Aon plc provides global risk brokerage, reinsurance, and human capital consulting through two segments — Risk Capital ($11.3 billion in 2025) and Human Capital ($5.9 billion) — generating $17.2 billion in total 2025 revenue across clients in more than 120 countries. Revenue comes primarily from commissions on insurance and reinsurance placements and fees for consulting and advisory services, with no single client exceeding 1% of total revenue.

Related stocks: BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) · WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) · AJG (Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.) · MRSH (Marsh) · ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company)
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