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Aon plc (AON) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $321.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.9%.

Aon plc is a global professional services firm with $17.2 billion in 2025 total revenue across Risk Capital (insurance and reinsurance brokerage) and Human Capital (health, retirement, compensation consulting) segments, serving clients in 120+ countries. Revenue is primarily... Read more

$321.36+8.9% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Stop $306.69Target $350.95(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$389.95+21.3%19 analysts
$350.95our TP
$321.36price
$389.95mean
$436

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $321.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.9%. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 8.9%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.3
P/E (Fwd)14.6
Mkt Cap$66.6B
EV/EBITDA14.2
Profit Mgn21.5%
ROE46.9%
Rev Growth3.7%
Beta0.82
Dividend1.05%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.41bullish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$240-25.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $306.41Resistance $337.31

Price Targets

$307
$351
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $321.36 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Thin upside margin: 8.9%. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $306.69. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $350.95 (+8.9% upside). Prior stop was $306.69. Stop-loss: $306.69.

What are the risks of investing in AON?

Thin upside margin: 8.9%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.7): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is AON overvalued or undervalued?

Aon plc trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 14.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AON?

28 analysts cover AON with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $390.

What does Aon plc do?Aon plc is a global professional services firm with $17.2 billion in 2025 total revenue across Risk Capital (insurance...

Aon plc is a global professional services firm with $17.2 billion in 2025 total revenue across Risk Capital (insurance and reinsurance brokerage) and Human Capital (health, retirement, compensation consulting) segments, serving clients in 120+ countries. Revenue is primarily commission and fee-based on risk placement and consulting services.

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