Skip to main content

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $212.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting, and third-party claims administration globally through 650+ U.S. and 400 international offices in 60 countries. Revenue is primarily commissions and fees from... Read more

$212.08+15.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Stop $200.74Target $244.28(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.0:1
Analyst target$271.42+28.0%19 analysts
$244.28our TP
$212.08price
$271.42mean
$388

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $212.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.5
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$53.1B
EV/EBITDA17.6
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE7.0%
Rev Growth38.3%
Beta
Dividend1.36%
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C6.69bearish
IV45%normal
Max Pain$160-24.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Sherry Barrat informed Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. on March 6, 2026 of her decision to retire from the Board of Directors effective May 12, 2026, upon director elections at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Board will reduce from 10 to 9 members. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.0
Quality Rank
2.1
Growth Rank
8.2
Industry growth leader
GatesMomentum 1.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $202.21Resistance $226.00

Price Targets

$201
$244
A.Upside+15.2%
A.R:R3.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $212.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $200.74. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AJG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $244.28 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $200.74. Stop-loss: $200.74.

What are the risks of investing in AJG?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AJG overvalued or undervalued?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a P/E of 33.5 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AJG?

28 analysts cover AJG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $271.

What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting,...

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is the world's third largest insurance broker, providing brokerage, reinsurance, consulting, and third-party claims administration globally through 650+ U.S. and 400 international offices in 60 countries. Revenue is primarily commissions and fees from its brokerage segment (87%) and risk management segment (13%), with approximately 67% from U.S. operations.

Related stocks: BRO (Brown & Brown, Inc.) · WTW (Willis Towers Watson Public Lim) · AON (Aon plc) · MRSH (Marsh) · ERIE (Erie Indemnity Company)