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AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.Hold5.6·$216.47-1.01%
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Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $216.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party claims administration globally, with brokerage at 87% of 2025 revenues. Fees and commissions are earned by placing coverage for commercial and nonprofit clients... Read more

$216.47+9.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#7 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.92%
IncomeYield1.28%(5y avg 1.01%)Payout42.88%sustainable
Stop $204.56Target $237.69(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.1:1
Analyst target$264.11+22.0%19 analysts
$237.69our TP
$216.47price
$264.11mean
$388

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $216.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.60)
Strong growth profile
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.7%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.3
P/E (Fwd)14.7
Mkt Cap$56.2B
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn11.4%
ROE7.0%
Rev Growth34.6%
Beta0.53
Dividend1.28%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.30bearish
IV67%elevated
Max Pain$320+47.8% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Director Sherry Barrat informed AJG on March 6, 2026 of her decision to retire from the Board, effective May 12, 2026 at the 2026 Annual Meeting. Board size to reduce from ten to nine. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
1.6
Growth Rank
7.3

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
2.2
52w Position
2.5
Support Resistance
3.2
GatesA.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(6)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $198.22Resistance $225.34

Price Targets

$205
$238
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AJG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $216.47, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $237.69 (+9.8%), stop $204.56 (−5.8%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AJG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $237.69 (+9.7% upside). Target $237.69 (+9.8%), stop $204.56 (−5.8%), A.R:R 1.1:1. Stop-loss: $204.56.

What are the risks of investing in AJG?

Thin upside margin: 9.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is AJG overvalued or undervalued?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a P/E of 35.3 (forward 14.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about AJG?

29 analysts cover AJG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $264.

What does Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. do?Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party...

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. provides insurance brokerage, reinsurance brokerage (via Gallagher Re), and third-party claims administration globally, with brokerage at 87% of 2025 revenues. Fees and commissions are earned by placing coverage for commercial and nonprofit clients without assuming underwriting risk. The third-largest insurance broker by revenue globally, with ~72,000 employees and a $67 billion market cap at year-end 2025.

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