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AMTAmerican Tower Corporation (REISell5.7·$177.85+2.82%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

An exceptionally high-quality real estate franchise with free cash flow well in excess of reported net income and three consecutive earnings beats trades at roughly 15 times cash flow, but a risk/reward ratio of 0.89 and debt-to-equity of 4.4 suggest the setup favors waiting for a better entry rather than initiating at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • High Quality Cash Generative FranchiseStable
  • Recent Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Unfavorable Near Term Entry GeometryStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

American Tower Corporation (REI (AMT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Specialty

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $177.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

American Tower Corporation owns and operates 149,686 communications sites globally across the U.S. & Canada, Latin America, Europe, and Africa & APAC, plus 30 data center facilities across 11 U.S. markets, with property operations generating 97% of total revenues via long-term... Read more

$177.85+9.2% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#4 of 16 REIT - Specialty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.52%
IncomeYield4.04%(5y avg 2.93%)Payout96.01%
Stop $169.89Target $194.13(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.8:1
Analyst target$215.70+21.3%23 analysts
$194.13our TP
$177.85price
$215.70mean
$260

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $177.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Oct 27, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 9.2%
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.5
P/E (Fwd)25.4
Mkt Cap$82.9B
EV/EBITDA18.8
Profit Mgn31.1%
ROE33.9%
Rev Growth4.7%
Beta0.90
Dividend4.04%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.95bearish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.7
Volume
3.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
8.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.9
Value Rank
3.9
Quality Rank
6.7
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.8 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $170.15Resistance $180.98

Price Targets

$170
$194
A.Upside+9.2%
A.R:R1.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-27 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $177.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $169.89. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the AMT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $194.13 (+9.2% upside). Prior stop was $169.89. Stop-loss: $169.89.

What are the risks of investing in AMT?

Thin upside margin: 9.2%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.4): -1.5.

Is AMT overvalued or undervalued?

American Tower Corporation (REI trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 25.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMT?

29 analysts cover AMT with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $216.

What does American Tower Corporation (REI do?American Tower Corporation owns and operates 149,686 communications sites globally across the U.S. & Canada, Latin...

American Tower Corporation owns and operates 149,686 communications sites globally across the U.S. & Canada, Latin America, Europe, and Africa & APAC, plus 30 data center facilities across 11 U.S. markets, with property operations generating 97% of total revenues via long-term tenant leases. Revenue is concentrated in four customers — T-Mobile (18%), AT&T (17%), Verizon Wireless (14%), and Telefónica (10%) — who together represent 59% of total revenues.

Related stocks: GLPI (Gaming and Leisure Properties, ) · EQIX (Equinix, Inc.) · IRM (Iron Mountain Incorporated (Del) · DLR (Digital Realty Trust, Inc.) · WY (Weyerhaeuser Company)
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