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Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Healthcare Plans

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality.

Alignment Healthcare offers Medicare Advantage plans to seniors through 45 markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, managing 236,300 members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is a per-member-per-month capitated payment from CMS covering all Medicare... Read more

$19.64+12.5% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#1 of 11 Healthcare Plans
Stop $18.26Target $22.08(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$25.38+29.2%13 analysts
$22.08our TP
$19.64price
$25.38mean
$18
$30

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Recent Analyst detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: CMS contracts
Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (131 sells, 0.04% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)31.0
Mkt Cap$4.7B
EV/EBITDA93.9
Profit Mgn-0.0%
ROE-0.7%
Rev Growth44.4%
Beta1.20
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.17bearish
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$8-61.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerCMS contracts
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive substantially all of our revenue from CMS contracts related to our Medicare Advantage health plans.'
  • MEDIUMGeographiclimited U.S. states
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our plans are concentrated in a limited number of U.S. states and we may not be able to establish new geographic presences.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -0.0%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.7
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
1.5
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Debt Equity
3.3
Short Interest
3.7
Days To Cover
5.7
Beta
6.2
Elevated put/call: 2.17High IV: 71%Above max pain $8Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
2.7
Growth Rank
8.2
Industry growth leader
GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40EARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $18.02Resistance $22.74

Price Targets

$18
$22
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (131 sells, 0.04% of cap)
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $19.64: Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.7/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.17; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $18.26. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $22.08 (+12.5% upside). Prior stop was $18.26. Stop-loss: $18.26.

What are the risks of investing in ALHC?

Concentration risk — Customer: CMS contracts; Quality below floor (2.3 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 2.8), Material insider selling (131 sells, 0.04% of cap).

Is ALHC overvalued or undervalued?

Alignment Healthcare, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 31.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALHC?

19 analysts cover ALHC with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $25.

What does Alignment Healthcare, Inc. do?Alignment Healthcare offers Medicare Advantage plans to seniors through 45 markets across California, North Carolina,...

Alignment Healthcare offers Medicare Advantage plans to seniors through 45 markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, managing 236,300 members as of December 31, 2025. Revenue is a per-member-per-month capitated payment from CMS covering all Medicare Parts A, B, and D costs; the company reported a narrow net loss of $1.0 million in 2025 versus $128.1 million in 2024.

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