Centene's business quality sits below the minimum investment threshold with no identified competitive advantage and deteriorating momentum, while a 57% revenue concentration in Medicaid creates meaningful policy risk; three consecutive earnings beats—including an extraordinary positive surprise—provide the only near-term constructive signal but are insufficient to offset the structural quality deficit.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Threshold No Moat↑Improving
- Medicaid Concentration Policy Risk↑Improving
- Recent Earnings Improvement Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026
Centene Corporation (CNC) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Centene provides government-sponsored managed care to 27.6 million members across Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other segments in the U.S., generating $194.8 billion in total revenues in 2025. The Medicaid segment (57% of revenues) covers 12.5 million members in 30 states;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.50, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Centene Corporation
About Centene Corporation
Centene's government-focused health plans generated $194.8 billion in total revenues in 2025 across 27.6 million members, with Medicaid at 57% of external revenues, Commercial at 21%, and Medicare at 19%. The company served 12.5 million Medicaid members across 30 states, 5.5 million Marketplace members in 29 states under the Ambetter Health brand, and 8.1 million Part D PDP members as of December 31, 2025, making it the nation's largest Medicaid, Marketplace, and stand-alone PDP insurer.
Centene earns revenue primarily through capitation rates set by government payors — CMS for Medicare Advantage and PDP plans, and state actuarial agencies for Medicaid. Medicare Advantage premiums vary by county, demographics, and risk scores under retroactive risk-adjustment models; roughly 60% of the company's Medicare Advantage membership was associated with contracts rated 3.5 stars or better as of December 2025. The Medicaid segment spans Medicaid Expansion, TANF, ABD, CHIP, LTSS, and foster care populations; state actuarial rate-setting typically lags actual medical cost trends, creating timing risk on earnings. The Inflation Reduction Act's Part D changes — including a $2,100 annual out-of-pocket cap for 2026 and a shift in insurer catastrophic-phase cost-sharing — substantially increased PDP financial risk, prompting Centene to elect into CMS's Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration program. Commercial Marketplace coverage is distributed under the Ambetter Health brand across 29 states, and the Other segment includes specialty pharmacy, behavioral health, and vision and dental services.
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The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in July 2025, introduces work requirements and more frequent eligibility redeterminations for Medicaid Expansion populations beginning in 2027, plus adjustments to provider taxes beginning in 2028 — changes that may reduce membership and increase morbidity in remaining enrolled populations depending on state implementation timelines. New York intends to terminate its Essentials Plan-5 by July 1, 2026, directly reducing the company's Commercial membership. Separately, CMS announced in 2025 an expanded scope and accelerated timing for risk-adjustment data validation audits, exposing the company to potentially significant retroactive premium refunds depending on audit outcomes.
See also: Healthcare · Healthcare Plans
From Centene Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-29Recent Developments — Centene Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Centene, Raises Price Target to $78 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS UBS Adjusts Price Target on Centene to $78 From $70 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Centene, Raises Price Target to $71 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Barclays Maintains Overweight on Centene, Raises Price Target to $82 — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Cantor Fitzgerald Upgrades Centene to Overweight and Raises Price Target to $79 — fiscal.ai Oct 28, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-29T11:14:31Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductMedicaid segment57%10-K Item 1: 'our Medicaid, Commercial, Medicare and Other segments accounted for 57%, 21%, 19% and 3%, respectively, of our total external revenues'
- LOWGeographicFlorida Medicaid contract10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid contracts with the states of Florida and New York accounted for approximately 10% or more of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenues individually'
- LOWGeographicNew York Medicaid contract10-K Item 1: 'Our Medicaid contracts with the states of Florida and New York accounted for approximately 10% or more of our consolidated Medicaid premium revenues individually'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 5.07LOWAnnual Meeting held May 12, 2026; 412,968,059 shares represented. Nine directors elected including Jessica L. Blume (321M for, 51M against), Sarah M. London (379M for), Kenneth A. Burdick (378M for). No director failed to achieve majority.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOWTheodore Pienkos, 44, appointed Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer effective March 18, 2026; previously Deputy Corporate Controller since August 2024. Base salary $440,000, 60% target bonus. Clean internal succession, no external hire.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $67.05: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $62.36. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $66.15 reached (−1.3% from $67.05); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $62.36. Stop-loss: $62.36.
Concentration risk — Product: Medicaid segment (57.0%); Target reached (-1.3% upside); Quality below floor (3.3 < 4.0).
Centene Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.6 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover CNC with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $74.
What does Centene Corporation do?Centene provides government-sponsored managed care to 27.6 million members across Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and...
Centene provides government-sponsored managed care to 27.6 million members across Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and Other segments in the U.S., generating $194.8 billion in total revenues in 2025. The Medicaid segment (57% of revenues) covers 12.5 million members in 30 states; the Marketplace segment serves 5.5 million members under the Ambetter Health brand, making Centene the nation's largest Medicaid, Marketplace, and stand-alone PDP insurer.