AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCM) Stock Analysis
Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Near 52-week high (1.2% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10.
AGNC Investment Corp. invests primarily in Agency RMBS — residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae — using short-term repurchase agreement financing at typical leverage ratios of 6 to 10 times tangible equity. Income derives from... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Near 52-week high (1.2% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit
About AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit
AGNC Investment Corp. holds a portfolio predominantly of Agency RMBS — residential mortgage pass-through securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae — within the approximately $9 trillion Agency market, financed via repurchase agreements the company targets at 6 to 10 times tangible stockholders' equity. At December 31, 2025, the Federal Reserve held approximately $2.1 trillion in Agency RMBS, reduced through prepayment runoff from its 2022 peak of over $2.7 trillion, a trend AGNC's 10-K identifies as a direct influence on mortgage spread dynamics and new investment returns.
AGNC generates income from Agency RMBS coupons net of repurchase agreement borrowing costs and hedging expenses. The company funds assets through short-term bilateral and tri-party repurchase agreements and TBA dollar roll transactions; a significant portion of borrowing capacity flows through the General Collateral Finance Repo service of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation, accessed via AGNC's wholly-owned captive broker-dealer subsidiary, Bethesda Securities LLC (BES). BES's membership in the FICC and FINRA is a prerequisite for that access, meaning BES's regulatory standing is a structural dependency in AGNC's funding stack. REIT qualification requires distributing annually at least 90% of taxable income and satisfying quarterly asset tests including an Investment Company Act exemption mandating that at least 55% of assets qualify as real estate interests. The company competes for assets against other mortgage REITs, banks, insurance companies, and government entities, some of which may have lower cost of funds or fewer REIT regulatory constraints.
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Spread risk — the widening of the gap between Agency RMBS yields and the benchmark rates attached to AGNC's interest rate hedges — is the company's most explicitly named and structurally unavoidable risk. The 10-K states that hedges will typically not protect against spread widening, meaning tangible book value can decline even when parallel rate moves are hedged. The Fed reduced Agency RMBS holdings from over $2.7 trillion in 2022 to approximately $2.1 trillion at December 31, 2025, and the 10-K cautions that outright asset sales — not currently favored — could accelerate spread widening if that policy trajectory shifts.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
From AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductAgency RMBS10-K Item 1: 'maintain an investment portfolio consisting predominantly of Agency RMBS'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyFICC GCF Repo service10-K Item 1: 'the FICC's GCF Repo service, which represents a significant portion of our total borrowing capacity'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $25.07 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Near 52-week high (1.2% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.81. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $24.67 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $24.81. Stop-loss: $24.81.
Near 52-week high (1.2% away); Weak overall score: 5.0/10; Negative momentum.
AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit trades at a P/E of N/A (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover AGNCM with a consensus score of 3.6/5.
What does AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit do?AGNC Investment Corp. invests primarily in Agency RMBS — residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie...
AGNC Investment Corp. invests primarily in Agency RMBS — residential mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or Ginnie Mae — using short-term repurchase agreement financing at typical leverage ratios of 6 to 10 times tangible equity. Income derives from the net interest spread between RMBS coupons and borrowing costs, distributed to stockholders as monthly dividends; the company had 54 full-time employees at December 31, 2025.