AGNCM · Why this verdict
Why AGNC Investment Corp. - Deposit (AGNCM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 0.8 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 92%
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.5 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Share-count fallback (no $ value): net -232,034.0 shares
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 7.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.3 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Dividend: 873.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.31>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.6 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, and Peer rank at 5.7; the weakest are Insider at 4.2, Technical at 4.8, and Sentiment at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.