Value
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.5 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 38.8x
- ▸PEG: 2.66
WWD · Why this verdict
Why Woodward (WWD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Woodward is an aerospace and defense components manufacturer with four consecutive earnings beats averaging 14.4% above estimates, 23% year-over-year earnings growth, and best-in-class margins and return on equity relative to peers — though a forward price-to-earnings of 37.4x and a price within 1.1% of its 52-week high leave virtually no margin of safety at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Woodward's return on equity and operating margins are classified as best-in-class versus peers, and the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 confirms broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics. Peer-rank breakdown | Return on equity and operating margins remain above peer medians and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAerospace component suppliers face cyclical demand from commercial aviation which can compress margins significantly during downturns, making best-in-class metrics vulnerable to demand cycle turns. | ||
Woodward has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 14.4%, including a 31.2% beat and an 8.6% beat in the two most recent quarters, demonstrating durable above-consensus execution. Earnings | The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSingle-source supply dependencies flagged as a high concentration risk could cause production disruptions that interrupt the beat streak if a key supplier fails. | ||
Revenue growth of 23% year-over-year and earnings growth classified as strong place Woodward among the faster-growing companies in its peer group within the aerospace and defense supply chain. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 12% annually over the next 12 months as aerospace cycle tailwinds continue. | →Stable |
| Counter23% revenue growth in aerospace components is likely partly cyclical recovery from post-pandemic supply chain disruption; the underlying secular growth rate is materially lower. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 37.4x with a PEG ratio of 2.55 and the stock within 1.1% of its 52-week high, the valuation prices in a high level of execution certainty and leaves minimal room for any operational disappointment. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth sustains above 20% annually to justify the current multiple without multiple compression over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPremium aerospace suppliers with durable moats, best-in-class margins, and consistent earnings beats often maintain high multiples for extended periods as growth compounds the earnings base. | ||
Woodward's return on equity and operating margins are classified as best-in-class versus peers, and the Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 confirms broad-based financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics.
→StablePeer-rank breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity and operating margins remain above peer medians and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterAerospace component suppliers face cyclical demand from commercial aviation which can compress margins significantly during downturns, making best-in-class metrics vulnerable to demand cycle turns.
Woodward has beaten analyst earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 14.4%, including a 31.2% beat and an 8.6% beat in the two most recent quarters, demonstrating durable above-consensus execution.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak continues for at least 3 of the next 4 quarters with average surprise remaining above 8%.
CounterSingle-source supply dependencies flagged as a high concentration risk could cause production disruptions that interrupt the beat streak if a key supplier fails.
Revenue growth of 23% year-over-year and earnings growth classified as strong place Woodward among the faster-growing companies in its peer group within the aerospace and defense supply chain.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 12% annually over the next 12 months as aerospace cycle tailwinds continue.
Counter23% revenue growth in aerospace components is likely partly cyclical recovery from post-pandemic supply chain disruption; the underlying secular growth rate is materially lower.
At a forward price-to-earnings of 37.4x with a PEG ratio of 2.55 and the stock within 1.1% of its 52-week high, the valuation prices in a high level of execution certainty and leaves minimal room for any operational disappointment.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth sustains above 20% annually to justify the current multiple without multiple compression over the next 12 months.
CounterPremium aerospace suppliers with durable moats, best-in-class margins, and consistent earnings beats often maintain high multiples for extended periods as growth compounds the earnings base.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 5.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.7 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 6.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 37% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.3 |
| EPS growth | 6.6 |
- ▸Strong growth: 23% YoY
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.8 |
| Analyst rating | 8.3 |
| Price target | 6.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.55 (n=1)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $5,569,981 (0.022% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.8 |
| quality rank | 8.3 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 4.2 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 9.4 |
| volatility | 4.2 |
| put call | 4.8 |
| implied vol | 3.1 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.9 |
| debt equity | 8.2 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $350
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 1 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:1d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.56
Upside
-3.7%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 56, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.6 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.6=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Growth at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.9; the weakest are Value at 3.3, Technical at 5.6, and Quality at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.56 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifAverage earnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P2Best In Class Margins Roe
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6, declining more than 2 points from the current 8 out of 9.
- P3Strong Growth Trajectory
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 8% year-over-year, declining more than 15 percentage points from the current 23%.
- P4Rich Valuation Near High
Trip ifPrice drops below $377.32, reaching the stop-loss level and falling more than 6% below the current $402.50.