Value
9.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
WNC · Why this verdict
Why Wabash National (WNC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Wabash National shows a weak Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9 and no competitive moat, confirming the engine's quality-below-floor flag. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should recover to 4 or higher over the next 2 quarters if the underlying quality deterioration is temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterA single-period Piotroski score can understate quality during a cyclical trough in heavy-equipment demand. | ||
A death-cross technical pattern has triggered a hard block on the trade setup, even as MACD shows early signs of improvement. Engine gate (failed) | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within 2 quarters if the death-cross signal is set to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterDeath crosses in cyclical industrials can persist for many months once a demand downturn is underway. | ||
Wabash National's revenue is declining 20% YoY, reflecting a real deterioration in demand rather than a one-quarter blip. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive within 2 quarters if the downturn is set to bottom. | →Stable |
| CounterTrailer manufacturing demand is highly cyclical, so a 20% decline can be part of a normal freight-cycle trough rather than a structural problem. | ||
Analyst estimates have fallen 41.3% over the last 30 days, a sentiment proxy that signals deteriorating forward expectations. Sentiment breakdown | Consensus estimates should stabilize or rise over the next 30-60 days if the estimate-cutting cycle is ending. | →Stable |
| CounterSharp estimate cuts for a thinly-covered stock (1 analyst) can be driven by a single model revision rather than a broad consensus shift. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 7.25 signals heavy defensive options positioning against Wabash National. Key risks | The put/call ratio should compress toward 2.0 or below over the next quarter if the defensive positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high put/call ratio at a small-float industrial name can reflect a handful of large hedges rather than a broad bearish consensus. | ||
Wabash National shows a weak Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9 and no competitive moat, confirming the engine's quality-below-floor flag.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should recover to 4 or higher over the next 2 quarters if the underlying quality deterioration is temporary.
CounterA single-period Piotroski score can understate quality during a cyclical trough in heavy-equipment demand.
A death-cross technical pattern has triggered a hard block on the trade setup, even as MACD shows early signs of improvement.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within 2 quarters if the death-cross signal is set to reverse.
CounterDeath crosses in cyclical industrials can persist for many months once a demand downturn is underway.
Wabash National's revenue is declining 20% YoY, reflecting a real deterioration in demand rather than a one-quarter blip.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive within 2 quarters if the downturn is set to bottom.
CounterTrailer manufacturing demand is highly cyclical, so a 20% decline can be part of a normal freight-cycle trough rather than a structural problem.
Analyst estimates have fallen 41.3% over the last 30 days, a sentiment proxy that signals deteriorating forward expectations.
→StableSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Consensus estimates should stabilize or rise over the next 30-60 days if the estimate-cutting cycle is ending.
CounterSharp estimate cuts for a thinly-covered stock (1 analyst) can be driven by a single model revision rather than a broad consensus shift.
An elevated put/call ratio of 7.25 signals heavy defensive options positioning against Wabash National.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should compress toward 2.0 or below over the next quarter if the defensive positioning unwinds.
CounterA very high put/call ratio at a small-float industrial name can reflect a handful of large hedges rather than a broad bearish consensus.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Wabash National's quality has broken down — a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, a 20% YoY revenue decline, and a death-cross hard block — while falling analyst estimates (-41.3%) and a 7.25 put/call ratio point to continued near-term pressure despite a statistically cheap valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 1.1 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 1/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -20%
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.4 |
| MACD | 2.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 73)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 63%
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+77.8%)
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 0.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.3 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 3.7 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 7.5 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.8 |
| dividend safety | 9.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 77.8% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:21d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.57
Upside
+38.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.42>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.8 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.8, Sentiment at 8.3, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.1, Peer rank at 2.5, and Momentum at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Weak Piotroski Quality Floor Breach
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 5 out of 9 from the current 1, showing quality has meaningfully improved.
- P2Death Cross Technical Hard Block
Trip ifThe stock closes back above its 200-day moving average for more than 10 consecutive sessions, reversing the death-cross signal.
- P3Declining Revenue Growth Deterioration
Trip ifRevenue growth turns positive and exceeds 0% YoY, reversing the current -20% decline.
- P4Falling Analyst Estimates Sentiment Risk
Trip ifConsensus EPS estimates stabilize and rise by more than 10% over 30 days, reversing the current -41.3% estimate cut.
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging Pressure
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 from the current 7.25, unwinding the elevated hedging pressure.