Value
9.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
WLKP · Why this verdict
Why Westlake Chemical Partners (WLKP) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
WLKP is a high-quality business with an excellent 42% return on equity and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should stay above 25% and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or higher over the next 12 months if quality persists. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated ROE for a chemical logistics partnership can be inflated by leverage rather than pure operating efficiency. | ||
WLKP trades attractively valued with a forward P/E of 13.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, suggesting cheap pricing relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain under 0.5 over the next 12 months if the valuation gap persists. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG can reflect an unsustainable near-term growth estimate rather than a genuine mispricing. | ||
The engine characterizes WLKP as a high-quality name (7.9) currently facing a temporary momentum headwind (3.1), rather than a structural deterioration. Edge rationale | Momentum score should recover back above 4.5 within the next 2 quarters if the weakness is genuinely temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterA momentum headwind that persists for multiple quarters can indicate a structural shift in demand rather than a passing dip. | ||
WLKP has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, adding execution risk on top of the momentum headwind. Earnings | The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized. | →Stable |
| CounterChemical distribution earnings are cyclical and estimate misses can reflect commodity price swings rather than company-specific execution problems. | ||
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.50 signals the options market is positioned defensively on WLKP in the near term. Options positioning | The put/call ratio should compress back toward 1.0 or below over the next quarter if the defensive positioning unwinds. | →Stable |
| CounterA high put/call ratio at a small partnership can reflect thin options volume and a handful of large hedges rather than a broad bearish view. | ||
WLKP is a high-quality business with an excellent 42% return on equity and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 9 out of 9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should stay above 25% and the Piotroski F-Score should hold at 8 or higher over the next 12 months if quality persists.
CounterAn elevated ROE for a chemical logistics partnership can be inflated by leverage rather than pure operating efficiency.
WLKP trades attractively valued with a forward P/E of 13.1x and a PEG ratio of 0.07, suggesting cheap pricing relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain under 0.5 over the next 12 months if the valuation gap persists.
CounterA very low PEG can reflect an unsustainable near-term growth estimate rather than a genuine mispricing.
The engine characterizes WLKP as a high-quality name (7.9) currently facing a temporary momentum headwind (3.1), rather than a structural deterioration.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Momentum score should recover back above 4.5 within the next 2 quarters if the weakness is genuinely temporary.
CounterA momentum headwind that persists for multiple quarters can indicate a structural shift in demand rather than a passing dip.
WLKP has missed consensus EPS estimates in 2 of its last 4 reported quarters, adding execution risk on top of the momentum headwind.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters if execution has stabilized.
CounterChemical distribution earnings are cyclical and estimate misses can reflect commodity price swings rather than company-specific execution problems.
An elevated put/call ratio of 2.50 signals the options market is positioned defensively on WLKP in the near term.
→StableOptions positioning
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should compress back toward 1.0 or below over the next quarter if the defensive positioning unwinds.
CounterA high put/call ratio at a small partnership can reflect thin options volume and a handful of large hedges rather than a broad bearish view.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
WLKP pairs an excellent-quality, statistically cheap balance sheet (42% ROE, PEG 0.07, Piotroski 9/9) with a temporary momentum headwind (RSI 25, momentum gate failed) and two recent earnings misses, while elevated options hedging (put/call 2.5) signals near-term caution.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 2.3 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.3 |
| Current ratio | 9.3 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 42%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 388% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
9.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 29% YoY
Momentum
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.3 |
| MACD | 2.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 8.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 26%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.1 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.7 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
- ▸High IV: 84%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.3 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C_QUALITY_VALUE_WAIT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.35
Upside
+6.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (7.9) with weak momentum (3.3)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The C-path quality+value combination triggered the HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict: quality 7.9 and value 9.4 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.35 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.8, Value at 9.4, and Technical at 8.2; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Momentum at 3.3, and Insider at 5.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Elite Roe Business
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 42%, ending the excellent-ROE read.
- P2Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 20x from the current 13.1x, eroding the valuation advantage.
- P3Temporary Momentum Headwind
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 more consecutive quarters, turning the temporary headwind structural.
- P4Consecutive Earnings Miss Risk
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, extending the current 2-quarter miss streak.
- P5Elevated Put Call Hedging Signal
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 2.50, unwinding the elevated hedging signal.