Value
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.4 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
WGO · Why this verdict
Why Winnebago Industries (WGO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Winnebago is a cheaply valued RV maker with excellent cash conversion and 3 beats in the last 4 quarters, but revenue is shrinking, quality is below the minimum and the price is in a confirmed downtrend with little room to the analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 3.6 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and thin return on equity, so the fundamentals do not clear the engine's quality bar. Bear case | Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins recover and returns improve. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA current ratio score of 7.5 and a Piotroski score of 6.7 show a sound balance sheet, so low quality reflects the cycle more than distress. | ||
Valuation is attractive at a forward P/E of 11.4x and a PEG of 0.21, backed by excellent cash conversion of 399% FCF to net income. Valuation breakdown | Free cash flow stays well above net income and the stock re-rates toward the $30.94 analyst target over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterCash conversion above 100% of a depressed net income can reflect working-capital release, and a low multiple on cyclical earnings is often a cycle-peak or trough illusion. | ||
Revenue is declining 17%, with quarterly sales of $698.7M in May 2026 versus $775.1M a year earlier, and the growth score is 0.0. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue decline narrows to single digits as RV demand stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of about $648M is only slightly below recent levels, suggesting the decline may already be bottoming. | ||
The price of $28.65 is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.4% per 30 days, and upside to the $30.94 analyst target is only 8.0% against 15.0% downside. Momentum breakdown | Price reclaims the 200-day average and the 30-day slope turns positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRising OBV and an improving MACD suggest a recovery setup, and the 24% analyst upside figure points to more room than the haircut target implies. | ||
WGO beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.49 vs $0.47, but missed in June 2026 ($0.66 vs $0.77). Last 4 quarters | EPS beats continue in the December 2026 report, 55 days away. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe 177% December 2025 beat inflates the 45% average surprise off a tiny estimate, and the June 2026 miss came in the seasonally strongest quarter. | ||
Quality scores 3.6 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat and thin return on equity, so the fundamentals do not clear the engine's quality bar.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quality score rises above 4.0 as margins recover and returns improve.
CounterA current ratio score of 7.5 and a Piotroski score of 6.7 show a sound balance sheet, so low quality reflects the cycle more than distress.
Valuation is attractive at a forward P/E of 11.4x and a PEG of 0.21, backed by excellent cash conversion of 399% FCF to net income.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays well above net income and the stock re-rates toward the $30.94 analyst target over 12 months.
CounterCash conversion above 100% of a depressed net income can reflect working-capital release, and a low multiple on cyclical earnings is often a cycle-peak or trough illusion.
Revenue is declining 17%, with quarterly sales of $698.7M in May 2026 versus $775.1M a year earlier, and the growth score is 0.0.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue decline narrows to single digits as RV demand stabilizes.
CounterThe next-quarter revenue estimate of about $648M is only slightly below recent levels, suggesting the decline may already be bottoming.
The price of $28.65 is below its 200-day average with a slope of -5.4% per 30 days, and upside to the $30.94 analyst target is only 8.0% against 15.0% downside.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price reclaims the 200-day average and the 30-day slope turns positive.
CounterRising OBV and an improving MACD suggest a recovery setup, and the 24% analyst upside figure points to more room than the haircut target implies.
WGO beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.49 vs $0.47, but missed in June 2026 ($0.66 vs $0.77).
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in the December 2026 report, 55 days away.
CounterThe 177% December 2025 beat inflates the 45% average surprise off a tiny estimate, and the June 2026 miss came in the seasonally strongest quarter.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.1 |
| Net margin | 0.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 399% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -17%
Momentum
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 75)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $511,658 (0.063% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.9 |
| quality rank | 4.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.9 |
| support resistance | 0.3 |
| 52w position | 2.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.4 |
| days to cover | 6.1 |
| volatility | 0.2 |
| put call | 7.6 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $15
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.8 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 5.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.7>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.38
Upside
+5.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.8B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 0.4<1.5@spot outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.38.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Sentiment at 6.8, and Catalyst at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 2.1, and Quality at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Strong Cash
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 16x from the current 11.4x.
- P2Shrinking Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $620M, down more than 20% YoY.
- P3Quality Below Minimum
Trip ifQuality score falls below 3.0 from the current 3.6.
- P4Downtrend Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice falls below $26.64, the stop level, a drop of more than 7% from $28.65.
- P5Earnings Recovery Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.