Value
7.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 35.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
WEYS · Why this verdict
Why Weyco Group (WEYS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Weyco is a high-quality footwear company, but earnings are expected to fall about 60% from a peak, the shares are overbought near their 52-week high, and insiders keep selling.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Earnings are expected to decline about 60% from a peak, with the forward P/E at 35x versus 14x trailing. Warnings | Forward P/E falls toward trailing levels only if forward earnings hold up. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe company has a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and conservative debt, so a dip in earnings may be absorbed without damage. | ||
The shares are overbought (RSI 80) and only 1.9% from the 52-week high, leaving little room for further upside. Momentum breakdown | Price consolidates and RSI cools without breaking the 200-day average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum is strong, with rising on-balance volume and MACD at 10, and breakouts from highs can continue. | ||
Business quality is high, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a quality score of 7.0 and a moat score of 7.0. Quality breakdown | The F-Score stays at 7/9 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality is measured on trailing results that may be at a peak, so the score could fall as earnings decline. | ||
Insiders sold $616,549 across 12 transactions in 90 days with no purchases, giving a bearish signal. Insider | Insider selling fades within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe selling is only 0.125% of market cap and no C-level executives sold, so it may be routine diversification. | ||
Quarterly revenue fell to $62.2M from $76.8M two quarters earlier, a sequential slide. Earnings | Quarterly revenue recovers above $68M. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is up from $58.2M a year earlier, so the slide may be normal seasonality. | ||
Earnings are expected to decline about 60% from a peak, with the forward P/E at 35x versus 14x trailing.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Forward P/E falls toward trailing levels only if forward earnings hold up.
CounterThe company has a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and conservative debt, so a dip in earnings may be absorbed without damage.
The shares are overbought (RSI 80) and only 1.9% from the 52-week high, leaving little room for further upside.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price consolidates and RSI cools without breaking the 200-day average.
CounterMomentum is strong, with rising on-balance volume and MACD at 10, and breakouts from highs can continue.
Business quality is high, with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, a quality score of 7.0 and a moat score of 7.0.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The F-Score stays at 7/9 or higher.
CounterQuality is measured on trailing results that may be at a peak, so the score could fall as earnings decline.
Insiders sold $616,549 across 12 transactions in 90 days with no purchases, giving a bearish signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling fades within 12 months.
CounterThe selling is only 0.125% of market cap and no C-level executives sold, so it may be routine diversification.
Quarterly revenue fell to $62.2M from $76.8M two quarters earlier, a sequential slide.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue recovers above $68M.
CounterRevenue is up from $58.2M a year earlier, so the slide may be normal seasonality.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 6.2 |
| Current ratio | 5.5 |
| FCF quality | 7.7 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.2 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
3.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $616,549 (0.126% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 3.9 |
| growth rank | 5.6 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| beta | 7.8 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 8.0, Value at 7.1, and Quality at 7.0; the weakest are Insider at 3.3, Catalyst at 3.4, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Decline From Peak
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 20x from current 35.5x.
- P2Overbought Near High
Trip ifShare price exceeds the current 52-week high by more than 10%.
- P3High Business Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6/9 from current 9/9.
- P4Persistent Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling over 90 days falls below $100,000 from current $616,549.
- P5Sequential Revenue Decline
Trip ifQuarterly revenue rises above $68M from current $62.2M.