Value
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.0 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.1 |
| PEG | 4.1 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 29.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.36
WCN · Why this verdict
Why Waste Connections (WCN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Waste Connections has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with consistent low-single-digit positive surprises and holds an 18.4% upside to analyst consensus targets, but trades in a confirmed price downtrend below the 200-day moving average with weak organic growth.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Waste Connections has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with each quarter delivering a positive surprise between 1.5% and 4.5%, reflecting the predictable recurring revenue characteristics of the waste management business. Earnings | Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterSmall consistent beats in waste management typically reflect conservative guidance and pricing power in a regulated industry rather than genuine earnings acceleration; organic growth of only 2.3% is very limited. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -2.7% over 30 days and a falling on-balance-volume, indicating institutional selling pressure that has pushed the stock below its long-term trend despite strong earnings fundamentals. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and a golden cross forms within 12 months, reversing the current downtrend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA recovering MACD with momentum score of 5.2 and asymmetry ratio of 3.5 suggests the downtrend may be bottoming; the death cross warning is classified as recovering rather than confirmed breakdown. | ||
Analyst consensus targets imply 18.4% upside to $183.53 from the current price of $154.98, representing meaningful potential return if the technical downtrend reverses, with the stock's asymmetry ratio of 3.5 confirming a favorable risk-reward setup. Sentiment breakdown | Price rises above $180, more than 16% from the current level, within 12 months as the recovery momentum completes. | ↑Improving |
| CounterAnalyst upside of 18% in waste management often reflects expectations of acquisitions or pricing power that may already be discounted; the current downtrend may reflect earnings growth that has disappointed relative to valuation. | ||
Revenue growth is only 2.3% and the company carries a debt-to-equity leverage penalty, meaning the investment case depends heavily on operational efficiency and price increases rather than volume growth, which limits the upside potential. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth accelerates above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, driven by pricing or acquisition activity. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWaste management companies typically grow at GDP-plus rates through a combination of pricing and acquisition; the current growth rate may be a trough reflecting a macro slowdown that will naturally recover. | ||
Waste Connections has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with each quarter delivering a positive surprise between 1.5% and 4.5%, reflecting the predictable recurring revenue characteristics of the waste management business.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat streak extends to at least 6 consecutive quarters and average quarterly EPS surprise remains above 2%.
CounterSmall consistent beats in waste management typically reflect conservative guidance and pricing power in a regulated industry rather than genuine earnings acceleration; organic growth of only 2.3% is very limited.
The stock is in a confirmed death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -2.7% over 30 days and a falling on-balance-volume, indicating institutional selling pressure that has pushed the stock below its long-term trend despite strong earnings fundamentals.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and a golden cross forms within 12 months, reversing the current downtrend.
CounterA recovering MACD with momentum score of 5.2 and asymmetry ratio of 3.5 suggests the downtrend may be bottoming; the death cross warning is classified as recovering rather than confirmed breakdown.
Analyst consensus targets imply 18.4% upside to $183.53 from the current price of $154.98, representing meaningful potential return if the technical downtrend reverses, with the stock's asymmetry ratio of 3.5 confirming a favorable risk-reward setup.
↑ImprovingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above $180, more than 16% from the current level, within 12 months as the recovery momentum completes.
CounterAnalyst upside of 18% in waste management often reflects expectations of acquisitions or pricing power that may already be discounted; the current downtrend may reflect earnings growth that has disappointed relative to valuation.
Revenue growth is only 2.3% and the company carries a debt-to-equity leverage penalty, meaning the investment case depends heavily on operational efficiency and price increases rather than volume growth, which limits the upside potential.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth accelerates above 5% year-over-year within 2 quarters, driven by pricing or acquisition activity.
CounterWaste management companies typically grow at GDP-plus rates through a combination of pricing and acquisition; the current growth rate may be a trough reflecting a macro slowdown that will naturally recover.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.7 |
| ROA | 3.8 |
| Gross margin | 4.5 |
| Op margin | 8.3 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 2.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 7.8 |
Momentum
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 79 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.4 |
| Analyst rating | 9.0 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,012,695 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.5 |
| 52w position | 9.4 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 5.7 |
| put call | 0.7 |
| implied vol | 8.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 4.5 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.90
- ▸Above max pain $130
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.9% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.9>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:103d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
0.14
Upside
+2.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.1<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.14 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.9, Catalyst at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.3, Value at 4.2, and Technical at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Reliability
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consistent beat streak.
- P2Confirmed Price Downtrend Below 200ma
Trip ifPrice drops below $140, more than 9% below the current $154.98, confirming the downtrend is accelerating.
- P3Analyst Consensus Upside 18 Percent
Trip ifAnalyst price targets fall below $165, reducing upside below 7% from the current price of $154.98.
- P4Weak Organic Growth Leverage Concern
Trip ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year-over-year for 3 or more consecutive quarters, indicating a structural growth slowdown.