Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.9x
- ▸PEG: 2.22
WASH · Why this verdict
Why Washington Trust Bancorp (WASH) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Washington Trust is a regional bank with strong growth, a solid earnings record and strong momentum, but the price already sits above the analyst target, so the stance is to hold rather than add.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The loan book is concentrated in commercial loans (54.0%) in southern New England, tying results to a single regional economy and to commercial credit quality. Bear case | Credit costs and nonperforming loans stay stable and the commercial share does not rise materially. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA regional commercial real estate downturn would hit this concentrated book disproportionately, and the 10-K flags 2 HIGH concentration risks. | ||
Washington Trust beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.96 vs $0.87 (+10.2%), showing steady earnings execution. Last 4 quarters | EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise staying positive. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 13% ($0.66 vs $0.76), showing earnings can slip, and a small-cap bank has limited cushion if credit costs rise. | ||
Growth is strong at 27% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among regional banks, with strong margins of 27%. Growth breakdown | Earnings growth stays in double digits over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRecent growth may be flattered by easy comparisons, and growth in a rate-sensitive bank can reverse quickly if funding costs or credit losses rise. | ||
The price of $39.02 is already above the analyst target (the distance to target is -15.8%, so the price is 15.8% above it), leaving no upside to the consensus view. Warnings | Analyst targets are revised up toward the current price, or the price consolidates without falling more than 10%. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag a breakout; golden cross, rising volume and a price above all moving averages suggest the market is repricing the bank higher. | ||
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with high yield but unsafe coverage, and the put/call ratio of 3.88 shows heavy bearish options positioning. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend is maintained without a cut and the put/call ratio falls back below 1.5. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe dividend has persisted through multiple quarters of beats, and a high put/call ratio can reflect hedging by holders rather than a bearish view. | ||
The loan book is concentrated in commercial loans (54.0%) in southern New England, tying results to a single regional economy and to commercial credit quality.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit costs and nonperforming loans stay stable and the commercial share does not rise materially.
CounterA regional commercial real estate downturn would hit this concentrated book disproportionately, and the 10-K flags 2 HIGH concentration risks.
Washington Trust beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, most recently $0.96 vs $0.87 (+10.2%), showing steady earnings execution.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS beats continue in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, with average surprise staying positive.
CounterThe April 2026 quarter missed by 13% ($0.66 vs $0.76), showing earnings can slip, and a small-cap bank has limited cushion if credit costs rise.
Growth is strong at 27% YoY and the company ranks as an industry growth leader among regional banks, with strong margins of 27%.
↑ImprovingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth stays in double digits over the next 12 months.
CounterRecent growth may be flattered by easy comparisons, and growth in a rate-sensitive bank can reverse quickly if funding costs or credit losses rise.
The price of $39.02 is already above the analyst target (the distance to target is -15.8%, so the price is 15.8% above it), leaving no upside to the consensus view.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised up toward the current price, or the price consolidates without falling more than 10%.
CounterAnalyst targets lag a breakout; golden cross, rising volume and a price above all moving averages suggest the market is repricing the bank higher.
The dividend is flagged as a yield trap, with high yield but unsafe coverage, and the put/call ratio of 3.88 shows heavy bearish options positioning.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend is maintained without a cut and the put/call ratio falls back below 1.5.
CounterThe dividend has persisted through multiple quarters of beats, and a high put/call ratio can reflect hedging by holders rather than a bearish view.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 9.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 27% YoY
Momentum
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 4.2 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.3 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.4 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.5 |
| beta | 8.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.20
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.29
Upside
-15.7%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 66, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.5>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.7; weakest: Catalyst at 4.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.7, Value at 6.7, and Insider at 6.6; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.6, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Industry Growth Leadership
Trip ifYoY earnings growth falls below 10% from the current 27%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $37.20 stop level, a drop of more than 4.7% from $39.02.
- P4Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial loans exceed 60% of the loan portfolio from the current 54%.
- P5Dividend Sustainability Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 3.0 for 2 consecutive months.