Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
VYX · Why this verdict
Why NCR Voyix (VYX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NCR Voyix clears the asymmetry gate at 1.9, with an analyst-target upside of 28.6% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak (avg surprise +34.9%). Reward-to-risk math | Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $11.19 (from $8.70) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues. | →Stable |
| CounterThe RSI of 73 is flagged explicitly as an 'overbought bear rally,' meaning the engine itself characterizes the current strength as a rally within a larger downtrend rather than a genuine reversal. | ||
Quality score of 1.7 sits far below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by an explicit earnings quality RED FLAG of -112% FCF/NI and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9. Quality breakdown | FCF/NI should turn positive and the Piotroski F-Score should climb toward 4+ over the next 12 months if the underlying business stabilizes. | →Stable |
| CounterNCR Voyix is mid-restructuring after its NCR Atleos spinoff, and negative FCF/NI in a transition period may not represent a durable earnings-quality problem. | ||
Price sits in a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -8.4%/30d) below the 200-day moving average, and the current RSI of 73 is explicitly flagged as an overbought bear rally rather than a durable uptrend. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and MA slope should turn positive over the next few months if the recovery genuinely takes hold. | →Stable |
| CounterOverbought bear rallies frequently fail and revert, especially with an 8.4%/30d negative MA slope showing the underlying trend has not actually reversed. | ||
Short interest is extreme at 36%, cited as a key risk, and the stock is classified SPECULATIVE due to a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high. Key risks | Short interest should decline from 36% and the drawdown should narrow (less than 30% off the 52-week high) over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExtreme short interest combined with a perfect earnings beat streak sets up classic short-squeeze conditions that could drive a rapid, outsized rally independent of fundamentals. | ||
NCR Voyix screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes. Valuation breakdown | The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA low forward P/E combined with a quality score far below the investment floor often signals a value trap rather than a genuine mispricing, particularly for a company still restructuring post-spinoff. | ||
NCR Voyix clears the asymmetry gate at 1.9, with an analyst-target upside of 28.6% against a 7% stop-loss downside, backed by a perfect 4-of-4 quarterly earnings beat streak (avg surprise +34.9%).
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the analyst-target take-profit of $11.19 (from $8.70) within 12 months as the beat streak potentially continues.
CounterThe RSI of 73 is flagged explicitly as an 'overbought bear rally,' meaning the engine itself characterizes the current strength as a rally within a larger downtrend rather than a genuine reversal.
Quality score of 1.7 sits far below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by an explicit earnings quality RED FLAG of -112% FCF/NI and a weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF/NI should turn positive and the Piotroski F-Score should climb toward 4+ over the next 12 months if the underlying business stabilizes.
CounterNCR Voyix is mid-restructuring after its NCR Atleos spinoff, and negative FCF/NI in a transition period may not represent a durable earnings-quality problem.
Price sits in a confirmed downtrend (MA slope -8.4%/30d) below the 200-day moving average, and the current RSI of 73 is explicitly flagged as an overbought bear rally rather than a durable uptrend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim the 200-day moving average and MA slope should turn positive over the next few months if the recovery genuinely takes hold.
CounterOverbought bear rallies frequently fail and revert, especially with an 8.4%/30d negative MA slope showing the underlying trend has not actually reversed.
Short interest is extreme at 36%, cited as a key risk, and the stock is classified SPECULATIVE due to a 41% drawdown from its 52-week high.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from 36% and the drawdown should narrow (less than 30% off the 52-week high) over the next 12 months.
CounterExtreme short interest combined with a perfect earnings beat streak sets up classic short-squeeze conditions that could drive a rapid, outsized rally independent of fundamentals.
NCR Voyix screens as attractively valued with a forward P/E of 8.9x and a PEG ratio of 0.04, per the engine's value notes.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should stay elevated (above 6) as the discount persists or the stock re-rates upward over the next 12 months.
CounterA low forward P/E combined with a quality score far below the investment floor often signals a value trap rather than a genuine mispricing, particularly for a company still restructuring post-spinoff.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NCR Voyix clears the engine's asymmetry gate on a perfect 4-quarter beat streak and cheap valuation, but a quality score far below the investment floor, a confirmed downtrend flagged as an overbought bear rally, and extreme 36% short interest keep the setup firmly speculative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 1.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.8 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 2.2 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -112% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 2/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
6.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -8.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.7 |
| erm sentiment | 4.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 61%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 1.8 |
Technical
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.1 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 36%
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.67
Upside
+40.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.2B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 8.4 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 7.5, and Catalyst at 7.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.4, and Peer rank at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Positive Asymmetry With Perfect Beat Streak
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 1.9, or price fails to close above $9.50 within 12 months.
- P2Quality Red Flag Negative Fcf Ni
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score rises above 4 from the current 2.2, or FCF/NI ratio turns positive.
- P3Confirmed Downtrend Overbought Bear Rally
Trip ifPrice closes back below the recent 52-week low, or RSI falls below 40 without reclaiming the 200-day moving average within 8 weeks.
- P4Extreme Short Interest Deep Drawdown
Trip ifShort interest rises above 45% from the current 36%, or the drawdown from the 52-week high exceeds 55%.
- P5Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.9x without a corresponding price increase, or value score falls below 5.0.