Value
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
VYX · Why this verdict
Why NCR Voyix (VYX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NCR Voyix is a cheap, heavily shorted turnaround with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, but revenue is shrinking about 21% and business quality is weak, so the position is not sized.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining about 21% and quality scores only 3.2 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat, undermining durability of the recovery. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue stabilizes near the $523M recent level and stops falling year over year. | →Stable |
| CounterBulls can argue the decline reflects divestitures and portfolio simplification, and cash conversion of 285% FCF/NI shows underlying cash generation is healthy. | ||
VYX has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters (average surprise about 26.7%), supporting a catalyst-driven recovery into the next report in 12 days. Last 4 quarters | EPS keeps beating consensus through the next 2-4 reports, with average surprise staying positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats are against low, reset estimates (e.g. $0.15 est vs $0.17 actual) while revenue is falling, so beats may reflect cost cuts rather than demand. | ||
Valuation is cheap at a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG of 0.03, with the price 31.3% below the $11.02 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | Price converges toward the analyst target of about $11.02 as earnings hold up over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLow multiples can be a value trap: leverage is high (D/E 4.0) and earnings growth off a shrinking revenue base may not persist. | ||
High leverage (D/E 4.0) and reliance on a single hardware supplier (Ennoconn) leave little balance-sheet or operational cushion. Bear case | Debt-to-equity declines from 4.0 and no supply disruption appears over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterStrong free-cash-flow conversion could fund deleveraging quickly, and supplier concentration has not yet shown up in results. | ||
Short interest of 41% and implied volatility near 99% make the stock prone to sharp swings around the next earnings date, with RSI at 74 already overbought. Key risks | Short interest declines from 41% as the recovery proves out, without a sharp price reversal. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA crowded short position can fuel a squeeze higher, and rising OBV shows accumulation, so the risk may be to the upside. | ||
Revenue is declining about 21% and quality scores only 3.2 against a 4.0 minimum, with no competitive moat, undermining durability of the recovery.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue stabilizes near the $523M recent level and stops falling year over year.
CounterBulls can argue the decline reflects divestitures and portfolio simplification, and cash conversion of 285% FCF/NI shows underlying cash generation is healthy.
VYX has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters (average surprise about 26.7%), supporting a catalyst-driven recovery into the next report in 12 days.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS keeps beating consensus through the next 2-4 reports, with average surprise staying positive.
CounterBeats are against low, reset estimates (e.g. $0.15 est vs $0.17 actual) while revenue is falling, so beats may reflect cost cuts rather than demand.
Valuation is cheap at a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG of 0.03, with the price 31.3% below the $11.02 analyst target.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price converges toward the analyst target of about $11.02 as earnings hold up over 12 months.
CounterLow multiples can be a value trap: leverage is high (D/E 4.0) and earnings growth off a shrinking revenue base may not persist.
High leverage (D/E 4.0) and reliance on a single hardware supplier (Ennoconn) leave little balance-sheet or operational cushion.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity declines from 4.0 and no supply disruption appears over the next 12 months.
CounterStrong free-cash-flow conversion could fund deleveraging quickly, and supplier concentration has not yet shown up in results.
Short interest of 41% and implied volatility near 99% make the stock prone to sharp swings around the next earnings date, with RSI at 74 already overbought.
↓DeterioratingKey risks
- Expectation
- Short interest declines from 41% as the recovery proves out, without a sharp price reversal.
CounterA crowded short position can fuel a squeeze higher, and rising OBV shows accumulation, so the risk may be to the upside.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.8 |
| ROA | 1.8 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 1.0 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 285% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -21%
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.39 (n=3)
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $104,595 (0.010% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 0.7 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 2.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.9 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 42%
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:2.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
2.73
Upside
+40.9%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 59, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($1.1B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.53>1.3, MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 2.73.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Catalyst at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.0, and Quality at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Deep Value Pricing
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x while the analyst target falls below $9.
- P3Declining Revenue Weak Quality
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $450M, down more than 25% YoY.
- P4Leverage And Supplier Concentration
Trip ifDebt-to-equity exceeds 5.0 from the current 4.0.
- P5Short Squeeze Volatility Risk
Trip ifPrice drops to $7.80 or lower, a 7% decline from $8.39, as short interest stays above 40%.