Value
6.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 20.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
VSTS · Why this verdict
Why Vestis (VSTS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The engine classifies Vestis as a BREAKOUT setup - a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI at 64, and bullish MACD - the strongest technical configuration in the framework. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above all major moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months, confirming the breakout. | →Stable |
| CounterThe edge_type is explicitly NO_EDGE, meaning the engine finds no statistical basis for the breakout translating into forward returns despite the constructive chart pattern. | ||
Quality score of 2.5 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by no competitive moat and broader quality concerns, triggering an exit-position action note. Quality breakdown | Quality score should climb back above 4.0 over the next 12 months if margin and moat characteristics improve. | →Stable |
| CounterUniform rental businesses like Vestis can carry structurally modest moat scores while still generating stable, contractual recurring revenue that the moat metric doesn't fully capture. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.48, with the analyst target already reached (-36.6% modeled upside) against 14.8% downside, signaling unfavorable risk/reward. Reward-to-risk math | Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as price corrects or analyst targets rise over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimates are already rising 6.1% over the past 30 days per the catalyst notes, which could push analyst targets higher and quickly flip the asymmetry math positive. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.94, cited directly as a key risk, alongside a high implied volatility reading of 66%. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less defensively skewed over the next few months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect institutional hedging of a long position rather than outright bearish speculation, and doesn't necessarily predict price direction. | ||
Vestis has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with analyst estimates revised up 6.1% over the past 30 days, heading into an August 6, 2026 earnings report. Catalyst breakdown | The beat streak should continue and estimate revisions should stay positive through the next report. | →Stable |
| CounterRising estimates ahead of earnings raise the bar for a beat, and the most recent miss quarter's -48.26% surprise shows the streak can break. | ||
The engine classifies Vestis as a BREAKOUT setup - a golden cross with price above all moving averages, RSI at 64, and bullish MACD - the strongest technical configuration in the framework.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above all major moving averages and continue trending higher over the next 12 months, confirming the breakout.
CounterThe edge_type is explicitly NO_EDGE, meaning the engine finds no statistical basis for the breakout translating into forward returns despite the constructive chart pattern.
Quality score of 2.5 sits below the engine's 4.0 floor, driven by no competitive moat and broader quality concerns, triggering an exit-position action note.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score should climb back above 4.0 over the next 12 months if margin and moat characteristics improve.
CounterUniform rental businesses like Vestis can carry structurally modest moat scores while still generating stable, contractual recurring revenue that the moat metric doesn't fully capture.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -2.48, with the analyst target already reached (-36.6% modeled upside) against 14.8% downside, signaling unfavorable risk/reward.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- Asymmetry ratio should improve toward positive territory (above 0) as price corrects or analyst targets rise over the next 12 months.
CounterEstimates are already rising 6.1% over the past 30 days per the catalyst notes, which could push analyst targets higher and quickly flip the asymmetry math positive.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 1.94, cited directly as a key risk, alongside a high implied volatility reading of 66%.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize toward 1.0 or below as options positioning becomes less defensively skewed over the next few months.
CounterAn elevated put/call ratio can also reflect institutional hedging of a long position rather than outright bearish speculation, and doesn't necessarily predict price direction.
Vestis has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with analyst estimates revised up 6.1% over the past 30 days, heading into an August 6, 2026 earnings report.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue and estimate revisions should stay positive through the next report.
CounterRising estimates ahead of earnings raise the bar for a beat, and the most recent miss quarter's -48.26% surprise shows the streak can break.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vestis shows a textbook technical breakout with a rising estimate revision trend, but the engine finds no statistical edge behind the pattern, quality sits below the investment floor, the asymmetry gate has failed after the analyst target was reached, and an elevated put/call ratio signals defensive options positioning.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 7.4 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
2.3/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
4.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 1.8 |
| growth rank | 0.6 |
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 8.8 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.2 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 2.3 |
| put call | 2.2 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.67
- ▸High IV: 71%
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-2.57
Upside
-36.1%
Downside
14.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 6.9 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-2.6=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 6.9, Value at 6.7, and Momentum at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.3, Quality at 2.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Golden Cross Breakout Setup
Trip ifPrice closes below the 50-day moving average, or RSI falls below 45 without a rebound within 4 weeks.
- P2Quality Score Below Investment Floor
Trip ifQuality score rises above 4.0 from the current 2.5.
- P3Negative Asymmetry After Target Reached
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 0 from the current -2.48, or modeled upside exceeds 10%.
- P4Elevated Put Call Ratio Signals Hedging
Trip ifPut/call ratio stays above 1.5 for more than 4 consecutive weeks.
- P5Earnings Beat Streak With Rising Estimates
Trip ifEPS surprise turns negative and misses estimates by more than 10% at the August 6, 2026 report.