Vistra Corp is an independent power producer with 43% revenue growth, a forward P/E of 14.0x, and 32% analyst upside to $202.76 — but the stock has crossed into a death cross pattern below all moving averages, missed earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and carries a debt-to-equity ratio that imposes a -1.5 leverage penalty, making this a high-upside bet on a technically broken chart.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Revenue Growth Ai Power Demand→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↑Improving
- Death Cross Falling Knife Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.99: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7).
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.99: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-14Recent Developments — Vistra Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Vistra Corp (VST) Stock Down 3.9% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 86/100 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS Vistra (VST) Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Vistra (VST) Stock Looks Reasonable Following New York Data Center Limits - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock and Series A Preferred Stock - Yahoo! Finance Canada — Yahoo! Finance Canada positive
- NEWS Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock and Series A Preferred Stock - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
Generated 2026-09-14T06:44:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditynatural gas62%10-K Item 1: 'Natural Gas| | CCGT, CT or ST| | 26,989 | | | 62%'
- MEDIUMGeographicTexas10-K Item 1: 'The largest portion of our retail operations are in Texas, where we provide retail electricity to approximately 2.6 million customers.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.99: Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 71. Prior stop was $139.30. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $195.68 (+31.9% upside). Prior stop was $139.30. Stop-loss: $139.30.
Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5.
Vistra Corp. trades at a P/E of 25.0 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover VST with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $217.
What does Vistra Corp. do?Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District...
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company operating in 18 states and the District of Columbia, with approximately 44,000 MW of generation capacity and approximately 5 million retail customers. Revenue comes from retail electricity sales through brands including TXU Energy, Ambit Energy, and Energy Harbor, combined with merchant wholesale generation dispatched across ERCOT, PJM, ISO-NE, MISO, NYISO, and CAISO markets.