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TLNTalen Energy CorporationSell5.6·$347.75
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Talen Energy posted 97% year-over-year revenue growth and generates positive free cash flow at a 43% margin, but a quality score below the minimum floor, mixed earnings track record, and high concentration risk in the PJM region make this a below-threshold investment.

Thesis pillars

  • Below Quality Floor Weak Returns↓Deteriorating
  • Exceptional Revenue Growth→Stable
  • Pjm Geographic Concentration↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

Earnings in 4 days (2026-11-03). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $347.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend.

Talen Energy owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure in the United States, including 2.2 GW of nuclear capacity at the Susquehanna facility, with the fleet principally located in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, and Montana. The company sells electricity,... Read more

$347.75+17.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#2 of 8 Utilities - Independent Power Producers
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.67%
Stop $323.41Analyst target $407.35(−10% haircut)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst consensus$452.62+30.2%20 analysts
$407.35Analyst target
$347.75price
$452.62mean
$307
$560

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $347.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Talen Energy Corporation

About Talen Energy Corporation

Talen Energy owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of U.S. power infrastructure, including a 90% interest in the 2.5 GW Susquehanna nuclear facility — the seventh largest nuclear generation facility in the United States — which produced approximately 17 TWh of zero-carbon electricity in 2025 at an all-in cost of roughly $27 per MWh. The company completed acquisitions of the Freedom and Guernsey combined-cycle natural gas facilities in 2025, adding 2.8 GW of low-carbon generation. Generation capacity is concentrated in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, and Montana markets.

Talen generates revenue from three primary streams: energy and ancillary service sales into PJM wholesale day-ahead and real-time markets, PJM capacity auction revenues, and contracted revenues. The Brandon Shores Reliability Must-Run arrangement provides an annual fixed payment of $145 million ($312 per MWd) through May 31, 2029, and H.A. Wagner provides $35 million per year under a parallel RMR through the same date, with separate variable cost reimbursement. The AWS power purchase agreement — expanded in June 2025 — commits Talen to delivering up to 1,920 MW of carbon-free Susquehanna power to an adjacent data center campus through 2042, with volume ramping to full capacity no later than 2032. The company targets hedging 60-80% of expected generation for the prompt 12 months using physical and financial instruments. Nuclear fuel for Susquehanna is fully contracted through the 2028 fuel load, and natural gas supply is supplemented by proximity to the Marcellus and Utica shale regions.

Show full overview

PJM market concentration underpins most of Talen's generation economics: the substantial majority of the company's generating capacity and revenues are derived from that market. FERC has accepted PJM's requests to delay certain Base Residual Auctions while proposing changes to the Reliability Pricing Model, which could affect Talen's capacity auction revenue visibility. The pending Cornerstone Acquisition would add the Lawrenceburg Power Plant and Waterford Energy Center (a combined 2.0 GW in Indiana and Ohio) plus the Darby Generating Station (456 MW dual-fuel peaking) in Ohio, broadening geographic exposure within PJM if regulatory and stockholder approvals are obtained.

See also: Utilities · Utilities - Independent Power Producers

From Talen Energy Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 16, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — Talen Energy Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-10-29T11:48:40Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 20264d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM
Concentration risk — Hedge Coverage: 60-80% expected generation hedge target
Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)10.8
Mkt Cap$16.4B
EV/EBITDA44.7
Profit Mgn-4.9%
ROE-12.8%
Rev Growth111.2%
Beta1.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV71%elevated
Max Pain$200-42.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicPJM
    10-K Item 1: 'The substantial majority of our generation capacity is located in, and accordingly the majority of our revenues are derived from, PJM.'
  • MEDIUMProductSusquehanna nuclear generation
    10-K Item 1: 'Susquehanna has typically comprised approximately half of our total annual generation'
  • MEDIUMCustomerAWS
    10-K Item 1: 'we and AWS entered into an expanded power purchase agreement for the long-term, fixed-price supply of up to 1,920 MW of power annually from Susquehanna...through 2042'
  • HIGHhedge_coverage60-80% expected generation hedge target
    10-K Item 1: 'We target a hedge range of 60-80% of our expected generation for the prompt 12 months'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
8.6
Industry growth leader

Unprofitable operations — net margin -4.9%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.6
Current Ratio
3.1
Gross Margin
4.4
Moat
5.0
Fcf Quality
6.0
Piotroski F
6.7
FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 34%, FCF yield 7.7%)No competitive moatQuality concerns

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.1
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dA.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
45 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $310.79Resistance $390.54

Price Targets

$323
$407
A.Upside+17.1%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (3/5): Revenue declining (-5.5% YoY), High leverage (D/E 3.7), Material insider selling (6 sells, 0.03% of cap)
! momentum at 3.5 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TLN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $347.75: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 1.6:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $323.41. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TLN stock price target?

Analyst target: $407.35 (+17.1% upside). Prior stop was $323.41. Stop-loss: $323.41.

What are the risks of investing in TLN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: PJM; Concentration risk — Hedge Coverage: 60-80% expected generation hedge target; Quality below floor (2.9 < 4.0).

Is TLN overvalued or undervalued?

Talen Energy Corporation trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TLN?

22 analysts cover TLN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $453.

What does Talen Energy Corporation do?Talen Energy owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure in the United States, including 2.2 GW of...

Talen Energy owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure in the United States, including 2.2 GW of nuclear capacity at the Susquehanna facility, with the fleet principally located in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio, and Montana. The company sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale PJM and WECC markets, supplemented by a long-term power purchase agreement with AWS for up to 1,920 MW of carbon-free power from Susquehanna through 2042.

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