Value
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.0 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 7.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.86
- ▸Attractively valued
VNT · Why this verdict
Why Vontier (VNT) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Vontier Corporation trades at an attractive forward price-to-earnings of 8x with an excellent return on equity of 35% and analyst consensus implying 38% upside, but carries significant debt leverage, declining earnings estimates, the most recent quarter missed estimates, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A forward price-to-earnings of 8.0x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.88 alongside a peer-leading valuation rank indicate the stock offers significant value relative to its cash-generating capacity, with analysts implying 38% upside to a consensus target. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 12x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBelow-the-200-day-moving-average positioning with declining analyst estimates suggests the apparent valuation discount may be a value trap if earnings revisions accelerate to the downside. | ||
A return on equity of 35% and a Piotroski financial-strength score of 7 out of 9 reflect that Vontier generates strong returns on shareholder capital, with operating margins and quality scores ranking above average within its peer group. Quality breakdown | Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the high-return characteristic. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh return on equity in a company with significant debt-to-equity leverage can be amplified by financial engineering rather than operational excellence, creating fragility in a rising rate environment. | ||
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, the most recent quarter produced a 17% miss, and estimates for the business are declining, indicating that the near-term earnings trajectory is weakening relative to prior expectations. Earnings | Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling the estimate decline has bottomed. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThree of the four prior quarters delivered positive surprises of 1-10%, and the May 2026 miss may have been a one-time event; the baseline remains a mostly beat-oriented company. | ||
Despite the price trading below the 200-day moving average with that average declining at 4.4% per month, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, forming a recovery-setup pattern that could lead the price back above trend. Momentum breakdown | Stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 20 consecutive trading days within the next 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterRecovering MACD in a downtrend often produces false signals; the confirmed downtrend at minus 4.4% slope per month is severe enough that it typically requires multiple months to reverse. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 8.0x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.88 alongside a peer-leading valuation rank indicate the stock offers significant value relative to its cash-generating capacity, with analysts implying 38% upside to a consensus target.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 12x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount.
CounterBelow-the-200-day-moving-average positioning with declining analyst estimates suggests the apparent valuation discount may be a value trap if earnings revisions accelerate to the downside.
A return on equity of 35% and a Piotroski financial-strength score of 7 out of 9 reflect that Vontier generates strong returns on shareholder capital, with operating margins and quality scores ranking above average within its peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity stays above 25% over the next 12 months, sustaining the high-return characteristic.
CounterHigh return on equity in a company with significant debt-to-equity leverage can be amplified by financial engineering rather than operational excellence, creating fragility in a rising rate environment.
Analyst earnings estimates have been trending downward, the most recent quarter produced a 17% miss, and estimates for the business are declining, indicating that the near-term earnings trajectory is weakening relative to prior expectations.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise turns positive in at least 2 of the next 3 reported quarters, signaling the estimate decline has bottomed.
CounterThree of the four prior quarters delivered positive surprises of 1-10%, and the May 2026 miss may have been a one-time event; the baseline remains a mostly beat-oriented company.
Despite the price trading below the 200-day moving average with that average declining at 4.4% per month, the MACD is improving and on-balance volume is rising, forming a recovery-setup pattern that could lead the price back above trend.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Stock price rises above its 200-day moving average and holds above it for at least 20 consecutive trading days within the next 6 months.
CounterRecovering MACD in a downtrend often produces false signals; the confirmed downtrend at minus 4.4% slope per month is severe enough that it typically requires multiple months to reverse.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.6 |
| ROA | 5.8 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 7.8 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 7.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 29%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
1.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -2%
Momentum
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 85)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 85 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.2 |
| 52w position | 4.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 0.8 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.4 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Above max pain $22
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +1 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+1Passed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.08
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
12.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 85
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $4.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Momentum at 7.1, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Growth at 1.0, Technical at 1.7, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Low Forward Pe Valuation
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 14x while earnings estimates continue declining, indicating valuation expansion without earnings support.
- P2High Return On Equity Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 20% in any reported quarter over the next 12 months.
- P3Earnings Estimate Decline Trend
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters, suggesting the estimate revision cycle has not bottomed.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Recovery Setup
Trip if200-day moving average slope falls below minus 6% per month, indicating an acceleration of the downtrend.