Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.31
- ▸Attractively valued
VLY · Why this verdict
Why Valley National Bancorp (VLY) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Valley National Bancorp has delivered four consecutive earnings beats, attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16, and strong revenue growth of 24%, but heavy commercial real estate loan concentration at 58% of the portfolio and a stock trading above its analyst price target limit the near-term risk-reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial real estate loans constitute 58% of the loan portfolio, creating a high-risk concentration that could generate significant credit losses if commercial property values decline or office vacancy rates rise further. Bear case | Commercial real estate loans as a share of total loans falls below 50% within 24 months through diversification or portfolio management. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterValley National has maintained a strong Piotroski score of 7 while carrying this concentration, suggesting it has managed credit quality effectively through the current commercial real estate stress cycle. | ||
Valley National has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with positive surprises ranging from 2% to 9%, reflecting consistent execution against consensus expectations and management guidance discipline. Earnings | Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the four-quarter streak. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeat margins of 2-9% are modest and may reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine operational outperformance; any credit reserve build in a commercial real estate downturn could easily flip this dynamic. | ||
Revenue growth of 24% year-over-year and strong earnings growth rank Valley National among the faster-growing regional banks in its peer group, with volume accumulation in the stock reflecting institutional recognition of this trajectory. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRegional bank revenue growth is often rate-sensitive; a rate-cutting cycle could compress net interest margins and quickly reverse the recent growth trajectory. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16 indicate the stock offers meaningful value relative to its growth rate, placing it in attractively valued territory within its regional banking peer set. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings stays below 13x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount to peers. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe stock trades above its analyst consensus price target, meaning even analysts who follow the company closely see no remaining upside at current prices. | ||
Commercial real estate loans constitute 58% of the loan portfolio, creating a high-risk concentration that could generate significant credit losses if commercial property values decline or office vacancy rates rise further.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial real estate loans as a share of total loans falls below 50% within 24 months through diversification or portfolio management.
CounterValley National has maintained a strong Piotroski score of 7 while carrying this concentration, suggesting it has managed credit quality effectively through the current commercial real estate stress cycle.
Valley National has beaten analyst estimates in all four of the most recent quarters with positive surprises ranging from 2% to 9%, reflecting consistent execution against consensus expectations and management guidance discipline.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings surprise stays positive in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters, maintaining the four-quarter streak.
CounterBeat margins of 2-9% are modest and may reflect conservative guidance rather than genuine operational outperformance; any credit reserve build in a commercial real estate downturn could easily flip this dynamic.
Revenue growth of 24% year-over-year and strong earnings growth rank Valley National among the faster-growing regional banks in its peer group, with volume accumulation in the stock reflecting institutional recognition of this trajectory.
↓DeterioratingGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth stays above 15% year-over-year in at least 3 of the next 4 reported quarters.
CounterRegional bank revenue growth is often rate-sensitive; a rate-cutting cycle could compress net interest margins and quickly reverse the recent growth trajectory.
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.3x and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.16 indicate the stock offers meaningful value relative to its growth rate, placing it in attractively valued territory within its regional banking peer set.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings stays below 13x over the next 12 months, maintaining the valuation discount to peers.
CounterThe stock trades above its analyst consensus price target, meaning even analysts who follow the company closely see no remaining upside at current prices.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.8 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.9 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 5.8 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 7.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.60 (n=5)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 4.6 |
Technical
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.6 |
| support resistance | 0.7 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.0 |
| days to cover | 2.9 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| news risk | 3.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 16.56
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.4 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(5)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:90d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.3<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.32
Upside
+4.2%
Downside
13.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 3.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Sentiment at 7.6, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Technical at 3.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0, and Peer rank at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.32 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings surprise falls below 0% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, breaking the consecutive beat streak.
- P2Revenue And Earnings Growth Momentum
Trip ifRevenue growth rate falls below 10% year-over-year in any of the next 4 reported quarters.
- P3Commercial Real Estate Concentration
Trip ifNon-performing commercial real estate loans rise above 3% of total loans in any reported quarter, signaling credit quality deterioration.
- P4Attractive Valuation Low Peg
Trip ifForward price-to-earnings rises above 15x, indicating the valuation discount has been fully closed.