Value
5.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.8 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 42.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
VCEL · Why this verdict
Why Vericel (VCEL) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 1.4 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 3.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 7.6 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 197% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 45 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 30% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,317,995 (0.072% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 6.8 |
| growth rank | 5.5 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.3 |
| days to cover | 1.8 |
| volatility | 1.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.4 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.4>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
2.23
Upside
+30.2%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.8B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 3.1, Insider at 3.9, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.