Value
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
USAS · Why this verdict
Why Americas Gold and Silver Corpor (USAS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Americas Gold and Silver has delivered 188% year-over-year revenue growth and ranks as an industry growth leader, with analysts pointing to 44% price upside, but consecutive earnings misses over 3 quarters and free cash flow burning at 20% of revenue signal that rapid revenue growth has not yet translated to financial sustainability.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Americas Gold and Silver grew revenue by 188% year-over-year, placing it among the fastest-growing names in the industrial metals and mining sector, driven by mine production ramp-up. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain above 50% year-over-year over the next 12 months as production volumes continue to scale. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue growth of this magnitude from a small base can stall sharply as production hits capacity constraints, and the company has missed earnings estimates in 3 consecutive quarters despite the high revenue growth. | ||
Analyst coverage, though limited to one firm, projects 44% upside from the current price of $5.76, implying the market has not yet fully priced the value of the company's expanded production capacity. Sentiment breakdown | The price should rise above $8.00 within 12 months, approaching the analyst price target, as production results validate the bull case. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith only one analyst covering the stock, the single price target carries very high uncertainty and cannot be treated as a true consensus — the 69% raw analyst upside figure shown is likely the un-haircut version. | ||
Americas Gold and Silver missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 140%, suggesting the company is consistently unable to meet analyst forecasts as it scales production. Earnings | The EPS surprise should improve above -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as operational efficiency matures. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one INLINE quarter and the trajectory of improving estimates suggest analysts are recalibrating to actual results, and current low absolute EPS levels make percentage surprises mechanically extreme. | ||
Despite being cash-flow negative, Americas Gold and Silver holds a Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong relative balance sheet health across liquidity, leverage, and profitability trend dimensions. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months as the balance sheet is maintained through the production ramp phase. | →Stable |
| CounterA high Piotroski score for a mining company can mask commodity-price-driven balance sheet improvements that reverse rapidly when metal prices fall. | ||
Americas Gold and Silver grew revenue by 188% year-over-year, placing it among the fastest-growing names in the industrial metals and mining sector, driven by mine production ramp-up.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain above 50% year-over-year over the next 12 months as production volumes continue to scale.
CounterRevenue growth of this magnitude from a small base can stall sharply as production hits capacity constraints, and the company has missed earnings estimates in 3 consecutive quarters despite the high revenue growth.
Analyst coverage, though limited to one firm, projects 44% upside from the current price of $5.76, implying the market has not yet fully priced the value of the company's expanded production capacity.
Tripped↓DeterioratingSentiment breakdown
- Expectation
- The price should rise above $8.00 within 12 months, approaching the analyst price target, as production results validate the bull case.
CounterWith only one analyst covering the stock, the single price target carries very high uncertainty and cannot be treated as a true consensus — the 69% raw analyst upside figure shown is likely the un-haircut version.
Americas Gold and Silver missed earnings expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average negative surprise of 140%, suggesting the company is consistently unable to meet analyst forecasts as it scales production.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The EPS surprise should improve above -20% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters as operational efficiency matures.
CounterThe one INLINE quarter and the trajectory of improving estimates suggest analysts are recalibrating to actual results, and current low absolute EPS levels make percentage surprises mechanically extreme.
Despite being cash-flow negative, Americas Gold and Silver holds a Piotroski financial strength score of 9 out of 9, indicating strong relative balance sheet health across liquidity, leverage, and profitability trend dimensions.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score should remain at 7 or above over the next 12 months as the balance sheet is maintained through the production ramp phase.
CounterA high Piotroski score for a mining company can mask commodity-price-driven balance sheet improvements that reverse rapidly when metal prices fall.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 5.8 |
| Op margin | 4.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -45% of revenue
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 72% YoY
Momentum
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 2.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.4 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 189%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.9 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.2 |
| support resistance | 8.6 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 3.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 2.5 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 80%
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 14 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:10.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:14d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
10.68
Upside
+145.7%
Downside
13.6%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 24, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.0
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -70% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.5<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 10.68 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Value at 7.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 3.2, Peer rank at 4.0, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 10.68 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Explosive Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 30% year-over-year in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Analyst Upside CatalystTripped
Trip ifPrice drops below $5.36, more than 7% below the current $5.76.
- P3Earnings Miss Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -100% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Strong Balance Sheet Piotroski
Trip ifPiotroski score falls below 6 in any of the next 4 reported quarters.